22nd May 2025 (12 Topics)
Cyclones and Climate Change
Context
A recent study published by researchers at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, revealed that tropical cyclones are expected to intensify and expand their geographical reach due to climate change, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The findings highlight increasing risks to ecosystems such as mangroves and regions previously unaffected by cyclones, making it a significant concern in climate risk assessment and conservation planning.
Findings from ETH Zurich Studies:
Cyclones and Ecoregions:
- Used the CLIMADA risk modeling tool and datasets like STORM-B/C to simulate cyclone risk for 1980–2017 and 2015–2050.
- Ecoregions were classified into:
- Resilient: Regularly exposed, recover quickly.
- Dependent: Ecosystems shaped by frequent cyclones.
- Vulnerable: Rarely disturbed, poor recovery.
- Projected decline in recovery periods:
- g., from 19 years to 12 years between high-intensity storms in resilient regions.
- New vulnerable regions predicted: East Asia, Central America, parts of Oceania.
Impact on Mangroves:
- Assessed global mangrove risk due to tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.
- Key risks modeled:
- Hazard (intensity/frequency of cyclones)
- Vulnerability (adaptive capacity of mangroves)
- Exposure (mangrove overlap with high-risk zones)
- Under SSP5-8.5:
- 56% of mangrove areas at high to severe risk by 2100.
- Southeast Asia could lose 52–78% of its mangroves.
Importance of Mangroves
- Carbon sequestration: Store 4–5x more carbon than terrestrial forests.
- Storm protection: Natural barriers reducing cyclone impact.
- Fish nurseries: Enhance coastal biodiversity and livelihoods.
- Soil conservation: Prevent erosion and saltwater intrusion.
Implications
- Ecological tipping points: Cyclone-hit areas may not recover, transforming ecosystems permanently.
- New cyclone belts: Likely to shift poleward, threatening non-tropical regions.
- Biodiversity loss: Threatens both terrestrial and marine species.
- Disaster preparedness: Demands climate-resilient planning and early-warning systems.
Key Concepts & Terminologies
These are scenario frameworks used in climate modeling to study future global developments.
SSP5-8.5 is often considered a "worst-case scenario" where radiative forcing reaches 8.5 W/m² by 2100, leading to extreme global warming. Radiative Forcing
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PYQ:Q. “Tropical cyclones are largely confined to South China Sea, Bay of Bengal and Gulf of Mexico. Examine the climatic conditions responsible for the formation of tropical cyclones in these regions.” (2021) |
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