GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

Context:

India's shifting stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict and the persistent challenges related to the Khalistani separatist movement is a task in present time for Indian Diplomacy.

India's Shifting Stance on Israel-Hamas Conflict

• Alignment Shift on Israel-Palestine: India, historically aligned with the Global South in supporting the Palestinian cause, took a surprising departure in its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Hesitation to Label Hamas a Terror Organization: In contrast to Western countries, India has refrained from designating Hamas as a terror organization. India's position remains distinct, focusing on talks to resolve the conflict while maintaining strategic ties with Israel.
• Link to Mumbai Attacks and Counter-Terror Cooperation: The editorial notes Israel's move to ban Lashkar-e-Taiba, responsible for the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, in an attempt to influence India's stance on Hamas.

Khalistan Issue

• Thwarted Plot on Khalistani Separatist: The Financial Times reported a U.S. intervention in preventing a plot to assassinate Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on U.S. soil.
• India's Response to U.S. Allegations: In response to the U.S. report, India acknowledged security-related discussions with the U.S., emphasizing shared concerns about the nexus between criminals, gun runners, and terrorists.
• Ongoing Security Challenges: The need for a coherent and transparent approach to national security, especially concerning dual responses, is emphasized.

Way forward

• Secrecy Surrounding Responses: The Indian government should shed some of the secrecy surrounding its dual responses to security challenges.
• Continued Relevance: The need for clarity in India's response to these challenges is emphasized for effective handling of national security matters.
• Time for Strategic Clarity: As matters of national security persist, the editorial suggests that it is time for the government to provide strategic clarity.

Context:

Recent release of October’s foreign trade shows tidings picture that could well be misread.

Overview of India's Trade Performance

• Export Uptick amid Import Surge: India's goods exports showed a modest 6.2% rise, the second uptick this fiscal year. However, merchandise imports surged sharply by 12.3%, leading to a record trade deficit of $31.5 billion.
• Unanticipated Effects on Trade Deficit: The sharp increase in imports, driven by festive demand for jewelry and electronics, resulted in a larger-than-expected trade deficit. Economists described it as a 'rude shock' with 'idiosyncratic' effects, challenging expectations.
• Positive Export Growth Amid Global Weakness: Despite global concerns about weak demand, India's merchandise exports surprised on the upside, growing at the highest rate in 11 months, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review.

Factors Impacting Trade Dynamics

• Managing Inelastic Imports: The recent decline in oil prices is expected to ease the impact of high imports, particularly oil, which hit a seven-month high of $17.7 billion.
• Festive Demand for Precious Metals: Gold and silver imports surged due to festive and wedding demand, but the drop in precious metal prices in early October influenced stockpiling by jewellers.
• Effects of Import Management System: October marked the last month of free imports for personal computers, laptops, and servers before the implementation of new import 'licensing' norms. Players rushed to stockpile inventories.

Concerns and Implications for Indian Trade

• Importance of Boosting Exports: While measures aim to control the import bill, boosting exports is crucial for job creation and economic growth.
• Statistical Quirk in Export Data: The reported uptick in exports is a statistical anomaly. October's shipments, valued at 33.6 billion dollars, are the lowest in 12 months and 6% below the 2021 tally.
• Missed Opportunities in Global Trade: While global trade grew 2% in October, Indian exports dropped 6%, indicating missed opportunities in a slowing world economy.

Context:

Mumbai, the most terror-attacked city globally, faces evolving threats, shifting from physical attacks to rising state-sponsored cyberattacks, demanding cybersecurity measures.

Mumbai's History of Terror Attacks

• Persistent Attacks on Mumbai: Mumbai holds the infamous record for being the most terror-attacked city globally, enduring multiple attacks since 1993, and causing significant casualties.
• 26/11 Attacks: The 2008 Mumbai attacks were the most audacious, lasting three days. They exposed vulnerabilities despite available intelligence on potential sea-bound attacks.
• Post-Attack Measures: After the 26/11 attacks, substantial changes were made, including police department overhauls, elite commando training, and enhanced security measures.

Shift to Cyber Warfare

• Changing Warfare Landscape: The editorial emphasizes a shift from physical attacks to cyber warfare globally, citing examples like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Failure of Iron Dome: The Iron Dome, a sophisticated defense system, failed against Hamas's online attacks, highlighting the evolving and unpredictable nature of cyber threats.
• Increasing Cyberattacks on India: Cybersecurity incidents in India surged, with a 278% rise in state-sponsored cyberattacks, making robust cybersecurity measures imperative.

Urgent Need for Cybersecurity Measures

• India's Vulnerability: India faces a severe threat with 13.7% of global cyber-attacks targeting it. Recent incidents, including Apple phone hacking, underscore the nation's vulnerability.
• Call for Robust Measures: The editorial urges comprehensive cyber security measures, emphasizing education at all levels, training for citizens, and substantial investments by the government.
• Online 26/11 Threat: Considering the rise in cyber threats, the editorial warns that without immediate action, India remains vulnerable to a potential "cyber 26/11" attack.