GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

India declared the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 to be in ‘abeyance’, in response to Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism, especially after the Pahalgam terror attack. The move signals a temporary suspension of cooperation under the treaty, aimed at pressuring Pakistan without officially terminating the treaty.

LEGAL STANDING AND STRATEGIC CALCULATION

• Lack of Legal Basis for 'Abeyance': The term ‘abeyance’ has no legal recognition under either the IWT or the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT, 1969). India is not a party to the VCLT, and even under customary international law, unilateral suspension of treaty obligations is not legally valid, making the move more symbolic than enforceable.
• Articles of IWT and VCLT Constraints: Articles XII(3) and (4) of IWT mandate mutual ratification for modification or termination, and VCLT Articles 60–62 allow suspension only in cases of material breach, impossibility, or fundamental change, none of which India has formally invoked, limiting India’s legal maneuverability.
• Tactical Pause in Treaty Implementation: The ‘abeyance’ allows India to withhold procedural cooperation, such as sharing hydrological data or notifying reservoir operations, thereby impairing Pakistan’s flood forecasting and water security, while avoiding overt treaty violation.

TWO-LEVEL GAME: DOMESTIC SENTIMENT VS DIPLOMATIC SIGNAL

• Domestic Political Calculations: The Cabinet Committee on Security likely adopted abeyance to satisfy public sentiment, showing decisive action after a terror attack, and to gain room for infrastructure advancement on run-of-the-river projects on western rivers like Ratle and Tulbul.
• Diplomatic Risks of Escalation: Using IWT as a counter-terror tool is a high-stakes gamble, as Pakistan sees it as an existential threat. Given Pakistan’s domestic instability and weakened military-civil dynamics, the move risks international escalation and misinterpretation.
• Structural Delays in Project Execution: Despite political will, India’s hydel infrastructure projects face regulatory, environmental, and procedural hurdles, such as clearances in ecologically sensitive zones, which limit immediate material benefits from suspending the treaty.

LONG-TERM STRATEGIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS

• Damage to India’s Global Image: India’s unilateral invocation of abeyance may undermine its image as a responsible global actor, potentially inviting international legal proceedings under the Permanent Court of Arbitration or International Court of Justice.
• Ecological Fallout of Fast-tracking Projects: Accelerated project execution in the Indus basin, a seismically and ecologically fragile region, risks biodiversity loss, ecological imbalance, and long-term water insecurity, especially in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
• Need for Strategic Coherence: India must balance national security, public sentiment, and ecological sustainability by ensuring its actions align with treaty obligations, international norms, and democratic accountability, avoiding over-militarisation of natural resources.

Practice Question

For the first time since 1931, the upcoming Census will record caste-wise data of all Indians, going beyond the current classification into SC, ST, and religious groups. This move is seen as an attempt to bring greater precision to affirmative action policies and social justice planning, but it raises significant concerns over implementation, categorisation, and the potential political consequences.

Sub-Categorisation and Affirmative Action Tensions

• Policy Tensions Within Beneficiary Groups: Decades of reservations have led to demands for intra-group fairness, particularly regarding the 'creamy layer' in OBCs and sub-categorisation within SCs and STs to ensure more equitable distribution of benefits.
• Judicial and Commission Interventions: The Supreme Court's 2023 ruling allowing sub-categorisation within SCs/STs and the Justice G. Rohini Commission’s study on OBCs indicate institutional recognition of internal disparities.
• Opacity Around Policy Outcomes: Despite the Rohini Commission submitting its report, the government has not made its findings public, reflecting fears of social unrest or political fallout from restructured quotas.

Conceptual and Logistical Complexities in Enumeration

• Ambiguity in Caste Definitions: The distinction between caste, sub-caste, and regional identities is blurred, complicating enumeration in a multilingual, multicultural country.
• Data Overload from SECC 2011: The Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 returned over 46 lakh caste names, many of which were inconsistent or unclassifiable due to lack of standardised nomenclature.
• Absence of a Unified Repository: India lacks a comprehensive caste database outside the SC, ST, and OBC lists, leading to frequent litigation in courts over inclusion/exclusion in affirmative action rosters.

Political and Social Ramifications

• Volatile Political Landscape: Recent state-level caste surveys in Bihar, Karnataka, and Telangana triggered intense political reactions, underscoring the sensitive nature of caste-based data.
• Need for Consensus-Building: With political parties now broadly supporting caste enumeration in principle, the Centre must foster consensus on methodology and classification to safeguard legitimacy.
• Risks of Infinite Fragmentation: Over-slicing social categories in pursuit of representativeness risks creating perpetual dissatisfaction among groups and destabilising affirmative action programs.

Practice Question

Strategic and Economic Significance

• Reduction of Foreign Dependency: India currently transships around 75% of its cargo through ports like Colombo and Singapore, incurring annual revenue losses of $200–220 million. Vizhinjam aims to internalise these logistics.
• Geographical and Structural Advantages: With a natural draft of ~20 meters and location close to the east-west international shipping route, ultra-large container vessels can dock without deviation, lowering costs.
• Technological Modernisation: It is India’s first semi-automated port, equipped with AI-powered traffic management and remote-controlled quay cranes, reducing vessel turnaround time.

Development Timeline and Financial Framework

• Public-Private Investment Model: Phase 1 funding included Rs 5,595 crore (Kerala govt), Rs 2,454 crore (Adani Ports), and Rs 818 crore (Viability Gap Funding from Centre).
• Project Delays and Challenges: Initiated in 2015, progress was delayed by fisherfolk protests, Church opposition, natural disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Early Operational Indicators: By early 2025, the port had received 265 vessels, including mother ships, indicating strong early operational potential.

Connectivity and Future Roadmap

• Hinterland Connectivity Imperatives: Efficient integration with road and rail networks is crucial for seamless cargo distribution to South India’s industrial zones.
• Planned Expansion Phases: Future phases (till 2028) will involve an additional investment of Rs 9,500 crore, aiming to develop allied logistics and warehousing.
• Transformational Potential: If implemented effectively, Vizhinjam can emerge as South Asia’s major transshipment hub, complementing India’s Sagarmala vision.

Practice Question