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El-Nino Effect: IMD Predicts Warmer Winter and Heavier Rains
Context:
El Niño, or Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climatic event synonymous with a poor southwest monsoon in India.
Prediction of IMD:
- Warmer Winter: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have concurred that the upcoming winter will be warmer than normal and also indicate a bountiful monsoon next year due to the ongoing El Niño.
El Nino and Indian Weather:
- El Niño, or Southern Oscillation (ENSO): It is a naturally occurring climatic event synonymous with a poor southwest monsoon in India.
- Rise in Temperature: It will further spike in temperature both on land and in the ocean. Unlike the below-normal monsoon this year, the monsoon in 2024 is likely to be normal and above normal.
- Monsoon Rainfall: This year, India received only around 94% of its normal average rainfall, which was also uneven and impacted agricultural activities.
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El Nino:
La Nina:
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About El Nino of 2023-24:
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Peak Effect of El Nino and Impact:
- El Nino Peak in April 2024: A recent analysis by WMO shows that the El Niño event is likely to peak in November-January 2024, with its impact reducing in April 2024.
- Better 2024 South-West Monsoon: This will make way for good annual southwest monsoon winds to reach the Indian peninsula. According to WMO, there is a 90% likelihood that El Niño will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer.
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