India to get above-normal monsoon rainfall: IMD

While several States reel under heatwaves, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a bountiful monsoon for the year.

Key-highlights of the Forecast

• Above-Normal Rainfall: The IMD predicts that the rainfall in June-September will be 6% more than the annual average of 87 cm during these months.
• Impact of El Nino: Last year, El Nino affected India’s monsoon negatively by denting it by 6%. However, this year, the El Nino is expected to fade by June, progressing to La Nina, which usually results in surplus rainfall by the second half of the monsoon.
• Forecasting Methods: The IMD utilizes statistical associations and a dynamical approach to forecast the monsoon. Both methods indicate a similar outlook for the monsoon this year.
• Updated Forecast: The IMD is expected to update its monsoon forecast in May, just ahead of the monsoon onset in June, providing more information on spatial distribution.
• Factors Favoring Rainfall: Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia are factors favoring plentiful rain in India.

1: Dimension - Factors Influencing Monsoon Forecast

• El Nino Impact: Last year, El Nino dampened India’s monsoon by 6%. However, this year, while El Nino has not fully faded, it is expected to transition to La Nina by June. La Nina typically brings surplus rainfall in the latter half of the monsoon season.
• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD, characterized by cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, is favorable for bringing rainfall to southern India. Although currently neutral, it is anticipated to turn positive by August, enhancing monsoon rainfall.

2: Dimension - Dynamical Approach

• Simulating Weather Patterns: The dynamical approach involves simulating weather patterns across the globe and using powerful computers to extrapolate this weather into future time periods.
• Computational Modeling: Sophisticated computational models are employed to simulate atmospheric conditions and predict weather phenomena, enhancing the accuracy of monsoon forecasts.
• Integration of Data Sources: Data from various sources, including satellite observations, ground-based weather stations, and ocean buoys, are integrated into dynamical models to improve forecasting capabilities.

3: Dimension - Implications for Agriculture and Economy

• Importance of June and July: June and July are critical months for agriculture, especially for the kharif crop, as a significant portion is planted during this period. Above-normal rainfall during these months can boost agricultural productivity and contribute to economic growth.
• Spatial Distribution: IMD plans to provide updated forecasts in May, just before the onset of the monsoon season in June. These forecasts will offer insights into the spatial distribution of rainfall across different regions, aiding agricultural planning and water management.
• Potential for 'Excess' Rainfall: The models suggest a 30% chance of rainfall exceeding 10%, categorized as 'excess' by IMD standards. Such abundant rainfall could have both positive and negative impacts, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, and flood management.
• Crop Planning: Farmers rely on monsoon forecasts to plan their cropping patterns, irrigation schedules, and input procurement, ensuring optimal utilization of resources and maximizing yields.
• Risk Mitigation Strategies: Access to accurate monsoon forecasts enables policymakers and agricultural stakeholders to implement risk mitigation strategies, such as crop insurance schemes and water management initiatives, to mitigate the impact of weather variability on agricultural livelihoods.

Mains Practice Questions

Q. "Effective agricultural planning hinges on accurate monsoon forecasts." Discuss the significance of monsoon forecasts for Indian agriculture, elucidating the implications for farmers and food security.