India’s GDP can grow to $40 trillion if working-age population gets employment: CII report

According to a report by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can grow from the current $3 trillion to $9 trillion by 2030, and $40 trillion by 2047, if the country’s working-age population — which is expected to increase by over 100 million people between 2020 and 2030, is productively employed.

Key findings of the report:

• In 2020, there were about 900 million people (67% of total population) in the working age group of 15-64 in India, which is expected to expand by another 100 million by 2030, despite a declining trend in fertility rate.
  • This implies that a whopping 24.3% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade will come from India.
• The golden period of 30 years between 2020-50 where our working age population will bulge can be an important horizontal enabler to bolster growth, even as the developed world including China ages.
• Closing the skill gaps of its qualified workforce will be critical, as India depends more on human capital than its peer countries that have a similar level of economic development.
• The report cautioned that if India does not create enough jobs and its workers are not adequately prepared for those jobs, its demographic dividend may turn into a liability.