India’s Strategic Dilemma in a Multipolar World

The renewed threat of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran underlines the risks of instability in West Asia, posing direct strategic and economic challenges for India.

India’s Foreign Policy, Multipolarity, and Regional Security Interests

1. Strategic Risks from a Possible Iran Regime Collapse

• Unipolar Consolidation in West Asia: A regime change in Iran could entrench U.S.-led unipolarity in the region, eliminating independent regional powers that counterbalance American influence. This would hinder India's aspiration to expand its strategic autonomy in West Asia.
• Weakening of India’s Balancing Diplomacy: India's diplomatic leverage with Israel and Gulf nations is premised on its ability to simultaneously engage with Iran and Syria. The fall of Iran would strip Delhi of this balancing capability.
• Energy Security Implications: India imports over 80% of its crude oil, with Iran historically being a reliable supplier. A post-Iran scenario dominated by U.S.-aligned oil regimes would undermine India’s energy diversification strategy.

2. Clash of Global Visions: Multipolarity vs. Unipolarity

• India’s Commitment to Multipolarity: India's External Affairs Minister has openly advocated a multipolar world order. This is at odds with the West’s preference for a U.S.-centric global hierarchy and reveals deeper geopolitical contradictions between Delhi and Washington.
• Strategic Autonomy in Action: India’s refusal to isolate Russia following the Ukraine war, commissioning of Russian-made warships, and purchase of discounted Russian oil illustrate its steadfast pursuit of autonomy in global affairs.
• Perception Gap with the West: Western corporate and strategic establishments increasingly perceive India as drifting from their strategic orbit, especially as India finds itself ideologically and pragmatically closer to Russia and China on multipolarity.

3. Policy Options and Diplomatic Pathways for India

• Advocating Restraint: India can use its strategic capital with the U.S. to urge non-intervention in Iran, highlighting the adverse impact such a war would have on Asian powers — particularly India and China.
• Strategic Leveraging of Quid Pro Quo: India’s neutral positioning, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine war, indicates that its cooperation cannot be assumed. India can use this to negotiate restraint in West Asia in return for quiet diplomatic support elsewhere.
• Recalibrating the West’s Global Vision: India should encourage the U.S. to accept a more distributed global power structure as a preferable alternative to endless conflict or the rise of exclusive Chinese regional dominance.

Way Forward:

• Assert Strategic Autonomy – Continue India’s policy of multi-alignment, resisting pressure to isolate countries like Iran and Russia.
• Strengthen Regional Engagements – Deepen ties with regional actors including Central Asia, Gulf states, and Southeast Asia to mitigate over-dependence on West Asia.
• Invest in Indigenous Energy and Security Capabilities – Develop domestic energy alternatives and strategic deterrents to withstand geopolitical shocks.
• Engage in Quiet Diplomacy – Use backchannel talks with the U.S. and EU to build a consensus around the necessity of multipolarity and regional stability.