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New beginning: On Syria’s present and future
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Context
Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), ex-leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and current head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), met U.S. President Donald Trump in Riyadh following HTS’s December 2024 capture of Damascus. This signals growing international legitimacy for his Islamist regime after decades of conflict in Syria.
Political Transformation and International Legitimacy:
- From Terrorist to Statesman: Ahmed al-Sharaa, once a U.S.-designated global terrorist, now heads Syria after HTS ousted Bashar al-Assad; he recently held meetings with world leaders including Trump, Macron, and Qatar’s Emir.
- Collapse of Assad Regime: HTS seized Damascus in December 2024, ending Assad’s long-standing secular dictatorship and paving the way for an Islamist-dominated administration under Sharaa.
- Geopolitical Backing: Türkiye and Gulf powers, including Saudi Arabia, have extended support to the new Syrian regime, positioning it as a legitimate player in regional diplomacy.
Economic Prospects and Reconstruction Potential:
- Lifting of U.S. Sanctions: On the sidelines of the Riyadh summit, President Trump ended decades-long U.S. sanctions on Syria, enabling potential inflow of foreign capital.
- Energy and Investment Outreach: Sharaa has invited U.S. firms to invest in Syria’s oil and gas sectors, aiming to rebuild the economy through international corporate partnerships.
- Arab Reconstruction Capital: Wealthy monarchies in the Gulf are expected to fund Syria’s war recovery and reconstruction, with business interests in infrastructure and energy.
Internal Instability and Governance Challenges:
- Sectarian Targeted Violence: After HTS’s rise, Syria has witnessed multiple atrocities against Alawites, Druze, and Kurds — including massacres in Latakia and attacks in central Syria.
- Opposition to Centralisation: Kurds in northeastern Syria demand decentralised democracy, rejecting HTS’s authoritarian governance and fearing marginalisation.
- Need for Inclusive Constitution: To prevent state collapse, Sharaa must dismantle armed factions and adopt a constitution that ensures rights for all ethnic and religious groups.
Practice Question:
Q. Syria’s recent political shift under Ahmed al-Sharaa reflects the paradox of transitioning from militant dominance to international legitimacy. In this context, critically examine the role of regional geopolitics, economic incentives, and internal social cohesion in determining the success of post-conflict reconstruction in fragile states.More Articles
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