Over the borderline: On the India-China deal

China confirmed an agreement to resolve its four-year military standoff with India. This development follows a series of tensions that began in April 2020 when China transgressed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), culminating in violent clashes.

Historical Background

• Military Standoff: Since April 2020, tensions escalated after China’s military incursions, leading to India’s counter-deployment along the LAC. The situation intensified following the June 2020 Galwan clashes, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers.
• Diplomatic Stalemate: Despite attempts to disengage at five friction points, mistrust persisted regarding China’s intentions to revert to pre-2020 troop positions. Diplomatic engagement was severely limited since the clashes, affecting overall bilateral relations.
• Trade Dynamics: While trade relations have remained strong, other areas such as investment, travel, and visa arrangements saw significant setbacks. This decoupling in various sectors highlights the broader implications of the military standoff.

Current Developments

• Agreement on Troop Withdrawal: China has agreed to restore troops to pre-2020 levels. Verification of this claim is crucial, as it could signify a positive shift in bilateral relations if implemented.
• Upcoming BRICS Summit: The agreement on “patrolling arrangements” was announced just before the BRICS Summit in Russia, providing a platform for possible high-level interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping for the first time since 2020.
• Transparency and Trust: The Indian government must ensure transparent communication regarding the “next steps” to foster trust. There are concerns about Chinese troop presence, with perceptions that they occupy more Indian territory than before.

Future Considerations

• Parliamentary Briefings: The government’s refusal to fully brief Parliament or allow media access has fueled skepticism about the situation. Clear demonstrations of troop withdrawals are necessary to validate claims of progress.
• Cautious Approach: It is essential to avoid premature declarations of success similar to those following the 2017 Doklam disengagement, which saw a subsequent increase in Chinese military presence. A cautious and measured response is advised.
• Framework for Peace: Both nations need to evaluate the relevance of the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement and the 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement. Discussions may be necessary to establish a new framework for managing border differences moving forward.

Practice Question

Q. Discuss the implications of the recent agreement between India and China to resolve their military standoff. Analyze the historical context, current developments, and future considerations for bilateral relations.