Preventing a China-Taiwan conflict

Context:

Amidst escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, India finds itself strategically positioned with strong interests but is unlikely to engage militarily in any conflict over Taiwan.

Maintain the Status Quo

• Economic and Strategic Interests: India has a vested interest in maintaining the current status quo regarding Taiwan, given the significant economic ties between the two nations. The burgeoning trade relations and potential collaborations in sectors like semiconductor manufacturing underscore the importance of stability across the Taiwan Strait for India's economic growth and strategic security.
• Potential Costs of Conflict: Any Chinese aggression against Taiwan would have dire consequences for India's economy and regional stability. The disruption of global trade routes and industrial supply chains, coupled with the possibility of a broader conflict involving major powers like the U.S., would severely impact India's economic and security interests.
• Regional Ramifications: A conflict over Taiwan could escalate tensions in the broader Indo-Pacific region, potentially affecting India-China relations and regional security dynamics. The risk of nuclear escalation and the reshaping of the regional security architecture highlight the imperative for India to prioritize stability and growth over involvement in a conflict over Taiwan.

Preventing Calamity

• Deterrence and Diplomacy: India can play a crucial role in preventing a conflict over Taiwan by bolstering deterrence measures and engaging in diplomatic efforts to dissuade China from resorting to military aggression. Utilizing international law arguments, building anti-aggression narratives, and coordinating diplomatic messaging can help dissuade Beijing from escalating tensions.
• Economic De-risking and Information Operations: Implementing economic de-risking measures and actively supporting the Taiwanese people through information operations can further contribute to deterring Chinese aggression. Additionally, providing military support to U.S. forces in the Indian Ocean can enhance deterrence capabilities and signal India's commitment to regional stability.
• Advancing Strategic Interests: These policy options not only serve to prevent conflict over Taiwan but also align with India's broader strategic interests. Strengthening cooperation with the U.S., enhancing India's strategic leverage, and asserting international leadership among Global South countries would contribute to India's national rise and regional stability.