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RBI: GDP growth may cross 7% in 2022-23
Context
According to the Reserve Bank of India, India's GDP growth in 2022-23 could easily exceed the 7% target.
Key Highlights:
- India's GDP growth in 2022-23 may exceed the 7% estimate, with retail inflation likely to go below 4.7% and gross non-performing assets likely to dip further.
- The RBI's growth expectation of 6.5% is based on agriculture, monsoon, and services sector, but geopolitical risks remain a risk.
Investment revival
- The governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said at the annual session of the Confederation of Indian Industry about a private investment revival in steel and cement sectors.
- Capacity utilization: The capacity utilisation in manufacturing is higher than the 75% level last estimated by the RBI, and credit offtake from banks is growing at 15.5%.
- Inflation has moderated to 4.7% in the last print, but there is no room for complacency.
- The Ukraine war had a major impact on prices across the board.
Evolving situation
- The monetary policy review could see another pause in rate hikes, depending on the situation on the ground.
- The Bank of New Zealand and Canada have both raised interest rates, and the fourth quarter results suggest that gross non-performing assets are even lower than December 31, 2022.
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