Recalibrating India–Maldives Relation

Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel is on a three-day official visit to India. During the visit, he will participate in the Second High-Level Core Group (HLCG) meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar to review the progress of the India–Maldives Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership, which was launched during Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s visit to India.

Strategic Significance of India–Maldives Relations

• Geostrategic Location of Maldives: Situated in the Indian Ocean, Maldives lies along vital Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs), making it crucial for India's maritime security and trade connectivity.
• ‘Neighbourhood First’ and SAGAR Policy: India considers Maldives an essential partner under its Neighbourhood First policy and the Vision SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), which seeks cooperative maritime governance.
• MAHASAGAR Initiative: The India–Maldives vision document aligns with India’s newer maritime doctrine MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions)—an advanced articulation of regional maritime cooperation.

Recent Political and Diplomatic Tensions

• Leadership Change in Maldives (2023): President Mohamed Muizzu—seen as having a pro-China orientation—demanded the withdrawal of Indian military personnel, straining bilateral ties.
• Reset in Relations: However, during his October 2023 visit to India, Muizzu signaled intent to repair and strengthen ties, and the adoption of the vision document marked a diplomatic reset.
• High-Level Engagements: Khaleel's third visit to India in 2024 reflects continuity in political dialogue and willingness for institutionalised strategic partnership despite past tensions.

Key Dimensions of the India–Maldives Comprehensive Partnership:

• Economic Cooperation: Focus on developmental assistance, infrastructure, and tourism, with India extending lines of credit and grant assistance for major projects including airports, roads, and water sanitation.
• Maritime Security Cooperation: Joint naval exercises, coast guard training, hydrography cooperation, and maritime domain awareness initiatives are part of India’s capacity-building efforts.
• Implementation Mechanism – HLCG: The High-Level Core Group mechanism monitors implementation, ensures accountability, and facilitates coordinated execution of bilateral projects.

Significance of the Partnership:

• The India–Maldives maritime and economic partnership reinforces India's strategic presence in the Indian Ocean amidst China’s expanding footprint (e.g., under the Belt and Road Initiative).
• It enables India to promote rules-based maritime order, counter piracy, trafficking, and illegal fishing, and maintain peace and stability in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region).

Challenges:

• China’s Influence: Maldives continues to engage with China economically, and any power imbalance may impact Indian interests.
• Domestic Political Factors: Political rhetoric in the Maldives may be used to mobilize nationalist sentiments against India.
• Security Perception: Withdrawal of Indian military presence may limit real-time strategic response capabilities in the region.

Way Forward:

• Maintain high-level diplomatic channels to reinforce trust and institutional partnerships.
• Ensure timely and transparent implementation of ongoing projects to build public support.
• Enhance people-to-people exchanges through education, tourism, and health diplomacy.
• Leverage multilateral platforms like IORA and Colombo Security Conclave to sustain multilateral regional cooperation.