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Scenarios for the future of India, and the world
Context:
India needs to promote a ‘Gandhian’ approach of using solutions that depends on local systems to help the world get out of a ‘Bollyworld’ like scenario.
A tale on forecasting
- Shortcomings in Economist Forecast: They do not compute the effects of social conditions and domestic politics on economic policies.
- Scenario Planning: It helps to identify ranges of potential outcomes and impacts. World Economic Forum in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) conducted a similar exercise in 2000 for India’s growth.
- ‘System Thinking’: It differentiates ‘scenario planning’ from conventional planning by a prior understanding of the undercurrents that could disrupt the prediction of economist’s models.
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