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The fight against the next cycle of global terror
Context:
The conclusion of the Cold War foreshadowed an era of global terrorism. The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks marked the onset of the subsequent cycle, and current events are indicating the potential emergence of another one.
The Evolution of Global Terror (1989-2021)
- Pre-Global Age of Terror (1989-2001): The period post-Cold War saw the development of global terror, characterized by unorganized networks and limited resources.
- The Impact of 9/11 (2001): The 9/11 attacks marked the beginning of the first cycle of global terror, leveraging modern communication technologies to create transnational threats.
- Rise and Fall of the Islamic State (2014-2017): The first cycle peaked with the Islamic State's reign of terror, influencing mass migration and shaping global politics.
Interlude - Pandemic and Geopolitical Changes (2020-2021)
- Pandemic-Induced Downturn (2020-2021): The COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary decline in transnational terror activities, disrupting global movements and interactions.
- US Withdrawal from Afghanistan (August 2021): The withdrawal triggered a hunt for space among terror groups, especially in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
- Renewed Radicalism Post-Pandemic: The post-pandemic period witnessed an increase in terrorist activities as radical sentiments resurfaced.
Signs of a Potential Second Cycle (2022 and Beyond)
- Revival in Afghanistan-Pakistan Region: Terrorist attacks increased, radicalism surged, and networks expanded, especially in the eastern Nangarhar province.
- Global Resurgence: Recent events, including actions by the Houthis, Hezbollah, and terror attacks in Iran, indicate early signs of a potential second cycle of global terror.
- Challenges and Preparedness: The world faces the challenge of rising terror groups, demonstrating the need for heightened public awareness, intelligence efforts, and proactive measures.
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