GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

Context:

The conclusion of the Cold War foreshadowed an era of global terrorism. The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks marked the onset of the subsequent cycle, and current events are indicating the potential emergence of another one.

The Evolution of Global Terror (1989-2021)

• Pre-Global Age of Terror (1989-2001): The period post-Cold War saw the development of global terror, characterized by unorganized networks and limited resources.
• The Impact of 9/11 (2001): The 9/11 attacks marked the beginning of the first cycle of global terror, leveraging modern communication technologies to create transnational threats.
• Rise and Fall of the Islamic State (2014-2017): The first cycle peaked with the Islamic State's reign of terror, influencing mass migration and shaping global politics.

Interlude - Pandemic and Geopolitical Changes (2020-2021)

• Pandemic-Induced Downturn (2020-2021): The COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary decline in transnational terror activities, disrupting global movements and interactions.
• US Withdrawal from Afghanistan (August 2021): The withdrawal triggered a hunt for space among terror groups, especially in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
• Renewed Radicalism Post-Pandemic: The post-pandemic period witnessed an increase in terrorist activities as radical sentiments resurfaced.

Signs of a Potential Second Cycle (2022 and Beyond)

• Revival in Afghanistan-Pakistan Region: Terrorist attacks increased, radicalism surged, and networks expanded, especially in the eastern Nangarhar province.
• Global Resurgence: Recent events, including actions by the Houthis, Hezbollah, and terror attacks in Iran, indicate early signs of a potential second cycle of global terror.
• Challenges and Preparedness: The world faces the challenge of rising terror groups, demonstrating the need for heightened public awareness, intelligence efforts, and proactive measures.

Context:

Citizens need to be aware of the grave dangers in the growing fad for a ‘shortcut’ or an ‘abridged’ rule of law model.

Legislative Measures to Address Rule of Law Challenges

• Updating Laws: Amendments and replacements, such as the Jan Vishwas Act and Bharatiya Nyaya (Second) Sanhita, target outdated laws, reducing compliance burden, and rationalizing penalties.
• Smart Governance: Government addresses infirmities, ensuring laws align with modern thinking, promoting trust-based governance, and facilitating business activities.
• Colonial Legacy Removal: Replacing colonial-era laws like the Indian Penal Code aims to shed historical legacies, modernize, and bolster credibility in the legal system.

Crisis of Credibility in Rule of Law

• Consumer Perception: Rule of law credibility crisis lies in the experiences and perceptions of law consumers, including victims, enforcers, and the majoritarian command group.
• Policing Practices: Encounters and 'bulldozer' policing replace traditional investigation methods, evoking populist support but risking abuse without adequate democratic checks.
• Abuses and Repercussions: Examples from France and Poonch district highlight the potential for abuse, leading to violence, protests, and calls for thorough investigations and accountability.

Abridged Rule of Law Challenges and Cautionary Approach

• Traditional vs. Abridged Rule of Law: Traditional rule of law ensures uniformity, predictability, and normative fidelity through a defined process, while the abridged model seeks quick and reactive justice.
• Crude Nature of Abridged Rule: Abridged rule of law, seen in encounters and 'bulldozer' actions, risks making justice arbitrary, with targets chosen based on majoritarian dictate or cryptic information.
• Government's Stand: The current government favors the traditional rule of law, emphasizing the dangers of a growing trend towards shortcuts and advocating caution in adopting an abridged model.

Context:

While Delhi's official response appropriately conveyed its displeasure via diplomatic channels, India's sensitive social media advocates exacerbated the situation.

Controversy Surrounding PM Modi's Lakshadweep Visit

• Maldives' Provocative Remarks: Three deputy ministers in Maldives made offensive remarks against PM Modi's social media posts on Lakshadweep, sparking controversy.
• Official Reaction: India's official response through diplomatic channels was tough and correct in conveying outrage.
• Social Media Escalation: Indian social media warriors exacerbated the situation, hindering diplomatic freedom and risking strained relations in the region.

Dangers of Hypernationalism

• Hypernationalism's Consequences: The controversy highlights the dangers of hypernationalism for India and Maldives, impacting their cooperation and straining relations.
• Freedom of Action for Diplomacy: Hypernationalists limit India's diplomatic freedom and alienate regional friends, emphasizing the need for prudent and constructive engagement.
• Maldives' New Government: The new Maldivian government, elected on an anti-India platform, risks harming its interests by needlessly provoking India.

Navigating Diplomatic Engagement

• Blame on Maldives: The controversy originated in Maldives' offensive remarks, reflecting real hostility despite the president's subsequent actions against the deputy ministers.
• Overreaction on Social Media: Calls to boycott Maldives are self-defeating, potentially benefiting China; India should focus on firm yet patient engagement with Maldives.
• Long-term Strategy: PM Modi's Lakshadweep visit is a vital first step; boycotting Maldives diminishes India's leverage, emphasizing the need for sustained diplomatic engagement.