The Risks of Russia’s Nuclear Posturing

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified with Russia's recent nuclear posturing, including drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons and the stationing of nuclear arms in Belarus. This escalation raises significant concerns about global nuclear stability and the principles governing nuclear deterrence.

Controversy Surrounding Russia’s Nuclear Posturing:

• Introduction to the Issue: Russia's nuclear manoeuvres, framed as responses to comments by Western leaders supporting Ukraine, seem more like attempts at brinkmanship rather than reactions to genuine existential threats. This nuclear posturing is particularly alarming given the potential for lowered thresholds for nuclear weapon use.
• Shift in Nuclear Doctrine: Historically, nuclear deterrence relied on the principle of mutually assured destruction and the notion that nuclear weapons are a last resort. Russia’s current strategy represents a significant departure from these norms, potentially normalizing the use of nuclear threats in conventional conflicts.
• Impact on Global Security: By lowering the nuclear use threshold, Russia risks setting a precedent that could encourage other nuclear and non-nuclear states to adopt similar postures, thus increasing global nuclear proliferation and instability.

Global Security Concerns and Policy Implications:

• Dangerous Precedent: Russia’s actions may embolden other nations like Iran and North Korea to consider or flaunt nuclear capabilities as a deterrent in conventional conflicts. This could lead to an increase in nuclear arsenals globally and undermine efforts toward nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.
• Erosion of Non-Proliferation Efforts: The war has highlighted the vulnerabilities of non-nuclear states, potentially motivating them to seek nuclear capabilities. The Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for security assurances, now appears ineffective, potentially discouraging future disarmament agreements.
• Shift in Nuclear Deterrence: The traditional clear distinction between nuclear and conventional warfare is being blurred. Russia’s signaling suggests that nuclear weapons might be considered for coercion in lower-stakes conflicts, thereby altering the global nuclear deterrence landscape.

Challenges and Future Implications:

• Increased Proliferation Risk: Smaller states in conflict-prone regions may pursue nuclear capabilities to secure asymmetric advantages in conventional warfare, increasing regional and global proliferation anxieties.
• Undermining Global Stability: The potential for tactical nuclear weapon use in conventional conflicts poses severe risks to global stability, threatening to replace the deterrent effect with an escalatory spiral.
• Need for Revised International Policies: The international community must reassess and strengthen nuclear non-proliferation treaties and mechanisms to address the emerging threats posed by such nuclear posturing and to ensure global security.

UPSC Mains Questions:

1. Evaluate the shift in nuclear deterrence doctrine as demonstrated by Russia in the Ukraine conflict. What are the potential risks and consequences of lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use in conventional wars?