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UNEP Foresight Report: AI-based weapons already in use could cause major disruptions in 4-6 years
Context
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a report highlighting the potential disruptions that AI-based and autonomous weapons could cause globally over the next four to six years.
Key-highlights of the Report
- Report Title: Navigating New Horizons — A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing
- Use of AI in Conflicts: AI has been deployed in conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, indicating its rising presence on the battlefield.
- Autonomous Weapons: These weapons operate without human direction, selecting and destroying targets independently.
- Expert Opinions: 25% of experts believe disruptions due to AI and automated weapon systems are "very likely," with another 34% considering them "likely."
- Perceived Impact: Experts scored the intensity of the impact at 2.6 out of 3, with a perception score of 4 when compared to 17 other potential signals of change.
Examples of AI Deployment
- Israel’s ‘Lavender’ AI System: Used to classify civilians and military operations in Gaza.
- Ukraine’s AI-equipped Drones: Deployed to strike Russian oil refineries.
- Reason behind the Situation
- Lack of Human Oversight: AI systems can recommend pro-escalation tactics without human intervention, increasing the risk of rapid and intensified warfare.
- Environmental Damage: AI-driven conflicts can lead to long-term soil and groundwater contamination through the release of hazardous materials.
Impact of AI-based Weapons
- Civilian Casualties: Autonomous weapons could result in massive civilian casualties.
- Environmental Harm: Targeted areas can suffer extensive ecological damage.
- Accelerated Warfare: The speed and intensity of conflicts could increase, leading to broader and more severe impacts.
Required Measures
- Regulation of AI Technologies: As AI continues to advance, regulation becomes critical to prevent misuse.
- International Agreements: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres advocates for a legally binding instrument to prohibit lethal autonomous weapon systems by 2026.
- Addressing Biosecurity Risks: The convergence of AI and synthetic biology could lead to new biological weapons, necessitating urgent action and updated frameworks.
Perspectives for Ethical use of AI:
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Mains Practice Question
Q: "The integration of artificial intelligence in autonomous weapon systems poses significant risks to global security and the environment." Discuss.
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