Why concern about India’s Falling Fertility Rate is Misplaced

RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat's recent statements about India's declining fertility rate and the need for population growth have sparked a debate on demographic transitions, socioeconomic implications, and regional imbalances. His comments have triggered political concerns, especially regarding the potential impact on political representation and economic growth, prompting discussions on whether the population control measures should be revisited.

Fertility Rate Concerns and Political Impact

• Fertility Rate and Regional Imbalances: Bhagwat's concerns about India’s falling fertility rate, especially in Southern states, stem from fears about losing political representation as the delimitation process is based on population growth.
• Impact of Political Slogans: The call for increasing fertility rates by promoting larger families in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab, where fertility rates are already below replacement levels, ignores the complex socio-economic realities of these regions.
• Population Growth and Regional Disparities: Advocating for larger families in poorer states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh could exacerbate regional population imbalances, leading to greater disparities in economic development and political power.

Socioeconomic Challenges and Labour Market Issues

• Labour Shortage Concerns: The fear of a looming labour shortage due to declining fertility rates is unlikely to materialize in the near future, as the total fertility rate in many states is stabilizing above replacement levels.
• Labour Mobility and Skills Development: Instead of focusing on population growth, addressing labour shortages can be achieved through improved mobility, skill development, and reducing state-imposed barriers on interstate migration.
• Women in the Labour Market: Despite improvements, India's work participation rate for women remains low compared to other developing economies, and demographic changes present an opportunity to improve women’s skills and integrate them into the labour force.

Policy Responses and Future Roadmap

• Challenges for the Elderly: The rising number of elderly workers poses a challenge to the labour market. While many elderly individuals continue working due to household survival needs, the focus should be on relieving them from strenuous work and providing suitable employment.
• Support for Elderly Families: The government could consider schemes like the Shram Yogi Maandhan Yojana to support families of elderly workers, providing financial relief after the demise of family members.
• Need for Strategic Planning: Rather than panicking over demographic changes, there is a need for a high-level committee to analyze demographic trends across states and devise a roadmap for future socioeconomic stability.

Practice Question:

Q. Evaluate the socio-economic implications of India’s declining fertility rate, particularly with respect to regional imbalances, labour market challenges, and the impact on political representation. How can India address these issues through policy interventions?