World is worried about India banning rice exports

2022 is emerging to be unique for Indian agriculture. Both the staple crops of rice and wheat appear to be suffering production losses.

Projects/estimates:

The World Bank’s food security update of August 2022 flagged how global concerns over the likelihood of a rice export ban by India are rising.
As per NITI Aayog’s demand and supply projections, India’s projected consumption in 2022-23 will be about 108 to 109 MMTs of rice.
If we assume for the sake of understanding, zero opening and closing rice stocks, then it appears that last year, the country generated a surplus of about 22 MMTs (130.29 – 108.28).
This was approximately the amount of rice that was exported from the country 2021-22. It is not same case for 2022-23.

India’s Rice production last year:

In 2021-22, India produced about 130.29 million metric tonnes (MMTs) of rice.
About 86 per cent of this (about 112 MMTs) was produced during the Kharif season (sown during June/July and harvested during November/December).
The remaining 14 per cent was produced in the winter months during the Rabi season.

Problems for India’s rice crop in 2022:

Area Coverage: The area coverage under paddy is lower than 2021. There are reports of the drying of transplanted paddy crop in fields primarily due to lack of irrigation. Reasons:
- Deficit rains in key paddy growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal.
- Dwarfing of rice plants caused by a Southern Rice Black Streaked Dwarf Virus (SRBSDV) attack.
- More remunerative price incentives for sister crops like soybean, and cotton.
Monsoon:
- Kharif is the main cropping season in India and it pivots on monsoon rains.
- About 48 per cent area depends directly on monsoon rains for irrigation.
- As of August 2022, India’s monsoon showers are about 7 per cent above their long-period average value (LPA).
- Despite a good monsoon figure at an all-India level, six states/Union Territories have received deficient rains.
- These states include Uttar Pradesh (with a rain deficit of 44 per cent), Bihar (with a deficit of 39 per cent), Jharkhand (deficit of 26 per cent), Manipur (deficit of 44 per cent), Tripura (deficit of 28 per cent) and Delhi (deficit of 31 per cent).
Apart from rains, virus attacks in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana are reducing tillage in paddy crops.