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Arctic Sea Ice Loss Slowdown
Context:
A new study has revealed that while Arctic sea ice melting has slowed down in the past 20 years, the slowdown is temporary and melting is expected to accelerate again.
Background:
- Melting of Arctic sea ice is one of the most visible indicators of global climate change.
- The slowdown in ice loss is observed over the last two decades, but it does not imply recovery of the Arctic.
Reasons for Slowdown:
- Anthropogenic Global Warming: Human activities such as fossil fuel burning have led to higher greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to Arctic ice melting.
- Natural Climate Variability: Cyclical variations in the Earth’s climate system also influence ice melt rates.
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Alters atmospheric circulation and affects Arctic conditions.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Long-term fluctuations that can bring cooler waters to Arctic regions.
- Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV): Fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures influence ice melt.
Key Findings of Study:
- The pace of melting slowed to 0.35 million sq. km per decade in the last 20 years, compared to 1.3 million sq. km per decade between 1993–2012.
- The slowdown is likely temporary (may continue for another 5–10 years).
- Once slowdown ends, models predict an accelerated loss of 0.6 million sq. km per decade.
Implications:
- The slowdown does not mean climate change is reversing; global GHG levels and mean global temperatures continue to rise.
- The Arctic may witness sharper, more rapid melting after the slowdown phase.
- Accelerated sea ice loss impacts:
- Albedo Effect: Less ice means more absorption of heat, enhancing warming.
- Ecosystems: Threat to species such as polar bears and Arctic biodiversity.
- Weather Extremes: Disruption of global atmospheric circulation affecting monsoons, storms, and rainfall.
- Sea-Level Rise: Though Arctic sea ice melting contributes less directly to sea level rise (since it is floating ice), it indirectly accelerates Greenland ice sheet melting.
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