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18th January 2025 (10 Topics)

China’s Population Decline

Context

China's population dropped by 1.39 million in 2024, reaching 1.408 billion. This marks the third consecutive year of population decline. The main cause is that more people are dying than being born.

Historical Context:

  • China’s population has been slowly declining since the 1980s.
  • However, the year 2022 was significant because it was the first time since 1961 (during the Great Leap Forward famine) that deaths outpaced births.
  • Regional Demographic Crisis: China’s neighbors, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are also facing similar issues of population decline due to low birth rates and restrictions on immigration.

Why is the population declining?

  • Rising costs of living are causing young people to put off or rule out marriage and child birth while pursuing higher education and careers.
  • While people are living longer, that's not enough to keep up with rate of new births.
  • While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China's already frail social security system is teetering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to pay into the underfunded pension system.
  • In China, unmarried women do not have access to fertility treatments like IVF, which is a policy issue affecting the overall birthrate.

Beijing’s Efforts to Address the Issue:

China has tried various methods to reverse this trend:

  • Incentives: Offering financial support for raising children, such as subsidies for childcare.
  • Social Pressure: Labeling unmarried women as “leftovers” and restricting divorce and abortion to encourage larger families.
  • End of One-Child Policy: In 2016, China ended its one-child policy and allowed families to have up to three children (since 2021). The one-child policy caused a preference for male children, leading to a lopsided population. There are now fewer women in the population, further complicating the situation.
  • Raising Retirement Age: To manage the aging population, China has started increasing the retirement age from 60 to 63 for men and from 55 to 58 for women in managerial and technical roles.

Despite these efforts, the birthrate continues to fall due to economic factors like high living costs, youth unemployment, and a slowdown in the economy.

Impact of the Economy:
  • Economic Challenges: China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024 but is expected to slow down in the future. The high cost of living, especially in urban areas, makes it difficult for young couples to afford children.
  • Aging Population: A shrinking working-age population is straining an underfunded pension system, and an aging society is leaning on a creaking health care system. 
  • Cultural and Social Issues:
    • Gender Imbalance: The one-child policy caused a preference for male children, leading to a lopsided population. There are now fewer women in the population, further complicating the situation.
    • Youth Unemployment: Many young people in China are unemployed, contributing to the reluctance to have children.
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