COP28: No fossil fuel phase-out in new global stocktake text

The new global stocktake text goes on to strengthen the language on coal by now adding “rapidly phasing down unabated coal” and “limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation”

COP 28 and Failed Phasing Out of Fossil Fuels:

• Question on Fossil Fuels: The latest draft of the COP28 agreement has sparked concerns among experts and negotiators as it fails to include language on phasing out fossil fuels.
• 5°C target: This omission is seen as a potential setback in achieving the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agreement.
• Mitigation options: The draft, proposed by the United Arab Emirates’ presidency, outlines various mitigation options but lacks a clear commitment to eliminating fossil fuels.

Options for Mitigation Without Fossil Fuel Phase-Out:

• Eight options: The draft presents eight options for countries to reduce emissions, including measures such as "reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels" and achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.
• Criticism: Notably absent is any reference to the complete phase-out of fossil fuels, a move criticized by experts who argue that addressing oil and gas emissions is crucial.

Coal Focus Raises Concerns:

• Timeline for coal phase-out: While the draft strengthens language on coal by advocating for the "rapid phase-down of unabated coal" and limitations on new coal power generation, it fails to provide a specific timeline for coal phase-out.
• Challenge for India: This emphasis on coal may pose challenges for countries heavily reliant on coal, such as India.
• European Union Stance: The European Union has rejected the draft, with concerns about its insufficiency and lack of clarity on the way forward.

Developing Countries and Differential Treatment:

• Differential treatment: Experts note the text's differential treatment of developing and developed countries.
• Just, orderly, and equitable: The document suggests a "just, orderly, and equitable" reduction of fossil fuels but places a more urgent emphasis on coal. This has raised concerns about the fairness of the transition process, particularly for developing nations.

Global South's Response:

• Global South: Countries, particularly from the Global South, express disappointment with the draft.
• The Republic of the Marshall Islands emphasizes the need for a fossil fuel phase-out to achieve the Paris Goal, signaling potential resistance to the current draft.

Climate Finance and Equity:

• Insufficient Resources: The text acknowledges concerns about insufficient climate finance,technology development, and capacity-buildingfor adaptation, particularly for vulnerable developing countries.
• Developed nations' reluctance: However, civil society organizations highlight developed nations' reluctance to include references to equity and common but differentiated responsibilities, signaling a potential division on foundational climate principles.

UN Secretary-General's Call for Ambition:

• Move beyond blocking tactics: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urges countries to move beyond blocking tactics and reject incrementalism in climate negotiations.
• Critical juncture: The call comes as the global community faces a critical juncture in deciding the level of ambition for mitigation efforts and the necessary support mechanisms.

Way Forward:

• As COP28 enters its final stages in Dubai, the absence of explicit language on phasing out fossil fuels raises concerns among stakeholders.
• The draft's focus on coal and the perceived differential treatment of developing nations may lead to intensified negotiations in the coming days.
• The global community awaits a meaningful agreement that aligns with the urgent need for ambitious climate action.