GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

Context:

Issues with Aadhaarseeding are a challenge for MGNREGS beneficiaries.

Deadline Refusal and Mandatory ABPS

• Government Stance: ABPS ensures quick payments and prevents leaks, relying on Aadhaar's widespread use.
• Impact on Job Card Holders: 35% reliant on ABPS, affecting 12.7% active workers, potentially hampering scheme accessibility.
• Implementation Issues: Technical reliance causes errors, with 7.6 crore workers' names deleted due to Aadhaarjob card discrepancies.

Issues with AadhaarBased Payments

• Payment Failures: Errors in spelling, wrong Aadhaarbank account mapping lead to payment failures.
• Delayed Wage Payments: Government claims on reduced delays debunked, citing fund insufficiency as a primary cause.
• Consequences of Mandatory ABPS: Further complications likely without rectifying Aadhaar seeding and mapping flaws.

Revisiting Mandatory ABPS Decision

• Government's Consideration: Possible exemptions on technical grounds, advocating social audits before imposing ABPS.
• Recommendation: Ministry should correct faulty seeding and mapping issues prior to enforcing ABPS.
• Scheme Vitality: Stress on maintaining MGNREGS's demand driven nature, independent of flawed technological reliance.

Context:

Consistent surpassing of monthly GST revenue estimates.

GST Revenues in 2023

• Revenue Surpassing Estimates: GST collections exceeded expectations, averaging ?1.66 lakh crore monthly, indicating a potential ?80,000 crore surplus.
• Implications for Preelection Spending: May provide fiscal leeway for preelection government initiatives but could be moderated by an anticipated yearend slowdown.
• RBI's Economic Projections: Predictions of a growth slowdown from 7.7% to 6% in the current quarter, indicating potential challenges despite increased GST revenue.

December's GST Figures

• Decelerating Growth Rates: December showed the lowest growth (10.3%) in three months, a drop from November's 15.1%, hinting at a gradual slowdown.
• Domestic Transaction Impact: Domestic transaction growth at 13% in December (down from 20% in November) implies a possible dampening of festive spending.
• Economic Indicators: Despite resilient domestic consumption, declining eway bills and rural demand fragility pose concerns amid global headwinds.

Last Minute Data for Budget

• Data for Interim Budget: Policymakers using this data for the Interim Budget must consider the slowing pace while factoring in the surplus inflow.
• Fragile Rural Demand: Concerns over the fragile state of rural demand amid bleak farm prospects despite strong domestic consumption indicators.
• Cautionary Notes for Projections: Last month's data should prompt caution in projecting fiscal measures due to anticipated economic deceleration.

Context:

Theories of China overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy, prising Europe out of American dominance and emerging as the dominant power in Asia have been proved wrong.

Perceived West Decline 

• Global Challenges to the West: Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and Chinese assertiveness suggest a possible weakening of the USled global order.
• Political Polarization in the US: Internal factors like political division and the potential return of Donald Trump contribute to the sense of Western decline.
• Triumphalism in the East: Some Eastern political elites see setbacks in the West as a historic shift, marking the end of centuries of Western dominance.

India's Perspective

• Positive India-West Relations: India views the West as a critical partner, and positive relations contradict the narrative of Western decline.
• Objective Assessment Needed: Despite positive ties, the question of Western decline should be objectively addressed.
• Endurance of the Idea of the West: The enduring concept of the West has persisted despite geopolitical changes and challenges over the past century.

Challenges to the West: China, Russia, and Global Dynamics

• Sino-Russian Alliance Challenges: China and Russia present a challenge, but both seek accommodation with the West, indicating the West's enduring influence.
• Political Forces Favoring Westernisation: Historical forces in Russia and China have favored Westernisation, despite current geopolitical confrontations.
• Neighbouring Responses to Aggressive Actions: Aggressive actions by China and Russia push neighbouring countries closer to the US, strengthening Western influence.