India-Pakistan tension and the Subcontinent’s challenge

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Context

India has conducted a series of air strikes under Operation Sindoor in response to the terror attack in Pahalgam, targeting terror camps not only in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) but also inside Pakistan. This marks a sharp escalation in India’s counter-terror response and has triggered fears of a prolonged India-Pakistan conflict with wider implications for South Asia's regional peace and economic stability.

Strategic Context and Regional Security

Shift in India’s Retaliation Doctrine: India’s recent actions signal a decisive shift from reactive to proactive counter-terrorism, targeting camps in both PoK and Pakistan—marking the operationalization of a new cross-border engagement threshold.
Mutual Destruction and Limitations of War: A full-scale war is unlikely to be sustained by either India or Pakistan without grave economic and human costs, making prolonged escalation strategically irrational for both sides.
Regional Challenge of Leadership Vacuum: South Asia suffers from a chronic shortage of visionary political leadership that can transcend historical animosities and foster a stable regional development framework.

South Asia’s Developmental Dilemma

Illusion of Growth Without Neighbourhood Stability: India’s belief in decoupling economic rise from neighbourhood disputes has worked so far, but prolonged conflict risks derailing growth and increasing vulnerabilities.
Pakistan’s Destabilisation Strategy: A weakened Pakistan may see economic sabotage through prolonged hostility as a strategic objective, potentially dragging India into a war of attrition that hampers development.
Global Response and Limited Leverage: Unlike previous wars, current geopolitical alignments may not exert timely diplomatic pressure to de-escalate hostilities, increasing the risk of prolonged conflict.

The Abandoned Peace Framework and Policy Reckoning

Collapse of Composite Dialogue Mechanism: The last serious peace initiative—the Manmohan-Musharraf formula (2000–2007)—sought LoC recognition and joint mechanisms, but has since been abandoned without an alternative.
Geostrategic Reality of the LoC: Despite aggressive rhetoric, major powers like the US, Russia, and China effectively endorse the LoC as the de facto international border—a position rejected by hawks on both sides.
Costs of Unilateral Regional Policy: India’s “neighbourhood-first” policy has gradually turned into a cost-imposition model, which although assertive, creates long-term strategic and diplomatic pushback from neighbours.

Practice Question

Q. Discuss how the India-Pakistan conflict impacts the strategic and economic stability of the South Asian region. In light of recent escalations, examine the viability of the Line of Control (LoC) as a permanent border and the role of regional leadership in restoring peace.

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