Israel’s Moment of Reckoning

Context:

For years, Israel sought a two-state solution, but Palestinians rejected it. After a recent Hamas attack, hopes for a separate Palestinian state alongside Israel have faded.

Escalating Conflict and Immediate Responses

• Unprecedented Violence: Over 600 deaths, 1,600 injuries, and mass rocket attacks by Hamas have led to Israel's largest single-day casualties.
• Revenge as a Response: Israel's vow for retaliation may increase violence in the region, as revenge rarely leads to lasting solutions.
• International Support: Western countries, especially the US, are actively re-engaging with Israel, offering military and intelligence support.

Ongoing Strategies and Regional Implications

• Targeting Perpetrators: Israel is expected to conduct overt and covert operations against Hamas leaders, both political and military.
• Delegitimizing Terrorism: Israel faces the challenge of delegitimizing terrorism like the international community did after 9/11.
• Treatment of Captives: The treatment of Israeli civilians kidnapped by militants will influence the legitimacy of Hamas.

Broader Regional Dynamics and Political Implications

• Qatar's Role: Qatar's support for Islamist groups, including Hamas, is now recognized, leading to Israel reconsidering its stance.
• Saudi Arabia's Involvement: Greater Saudi involvement in the Palestinian issue is expected, potentially impacting regional dynamics.
• Netanyahu's Political Future: The crisis temporarily boosts Netanyahu's position, but his handling of the situation may shape his political career.