Moving policy away from population control

Context:

World Population Prospects (WPP), 2022, forecasts India becoming the most populous country by 2023, surpassing China, with a 140-crore population. The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division releases World Population Prospect (biennial cycle). As per the latest WPP, India will reach 150 crores by 2030 and 166 crores by 2050.

How much change has occurred in the demographic structure of India?

• There has been a sea of changes in the population structure of India. India at the time of Independence in 1947 had a population of 34 crores. Presently India has 17.5% of the world’s population. We are presently in stage 3 of demographic transition and experiencing a slowing growth rate due to constant low mortality and rapidly declining fertility.
• Decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR): According to the National Family Health Survey total fertility rate (TFR) has slipped to two, below the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children per woman). TFR was reported at 6 at the time of independence. Despite this we are will be growing for the next three to four decades.