10th September 2024 (12 Topics)
Periodic Reset
Context
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to Brunei and Singapore reflect India's renewed emphasis on its “Act East” policy. This strategic move aims to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia amidst declining trade with some countries and evolving regional dynamics. Modi's visits highlight India’s intent to re-engage with ASEAN nations and enhance bilateral cooperation in various sectors.
Significance of Recent Visits
- Brunei Visit: Prime Minister Modi's visit to Brunei, the first by an Indian Prime Minister, aimed to revitalize ties with a strategically located ASEAN member. Despite discussions on defence, geo-strategic issues, and space cooperation, trade and investment collaborations remain to be seen, especially as India’s oil imports have shifted to Russia.
- Singapore Visit: In Singapore, the focus was on bolstering semiconductor cooperation, with Singapore being a key player in the electronics supply chain. This collaboration seeks to leverage Singapore’s technical expertise and investment capabilities to address challenges in chip manufacturing and rare earths, potentially countering U.S.-China tensions.
- Future Engagements: Modi is also scheduled to visit Laos, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and is hosting the Prime Ministers of Vietnam and Malaysia. These visits underscore India's strategic intent to forge and strengthen ties with Southeast Asian nations, aiming to enhance regional connectivity and cooperation.
Strategic and Policy Implications
- Challenges in ASEAN Trade: India’s trade with ASEAN has doubled over the past decade, but trade with Brunei has declined. India's withdrawal from the ASEAN-led RCEP in 2019 remains a significant issue, cutting it off from a major regional free trade agreement. There is a need to update bilateral trade agreements like the AITIGA and CECA with Singapore to address this gap.
- Geopolitical Coordination: India's commitment to “ASEAN centrality” is acknowledged, but more consistent engagement is required on geopolitical issues such as Myanmar, the South China Sea, and Quad dynamics. This involves coordinating closely with ASEAN nations to align on strategic and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Historical and Modern Ties: India’s historical connections with Southeast Asia date back over a millennium, but modern relations require periodic reassessment and strengthening. The shift from the “Look East” policy (1992) to the “Act East” policy (2014) signifies an evolving approach to regional diplomacy and strategic partnerships.
Practice Question
Q. Evaluate the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visits to Brunei and Singapore on India's "Act East" policy. Discuss the implications of these visits for India's trade and strategic relations with Southeast Asia, considering the challenges posed by India's exit from the RCEP and the need for updated bilateral agreements with ASEAN nations.
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