Reading the Population
UN’s Population Division has released 2022 edition of World Population Prospects on World Population Day, i.e., on 11July, citing a skewedness in the growth process.
What are the key takeaways?
- Declining growth rate: The world population continues to grow, but the rate of the growth has been declined. In the 2020, the growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.
- Skewed Growth rate: More than half of the projected increase in global population till 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries; Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania. 46 least developed countries are among the world’s fastest growing nations, projecting many of them doubling the population between 2022 and 2050.
- Increasing dependency: A sustained drop in fertility rate has led to increase in number of working age people, the window to perish demographic dividend as the ratio of old age population is increasing in numbers as well as in share of population. It is expected to increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. More young population is turning into old age population increasing the dependency ratio.
What does the report says on Indian population estimation?
- Most populous nation: India is projected to outnumber China as the world’s most populous countries by 2023. India with around 2% of world’s total landmass accommodates around 17% of total world’s population, creating an additional pressure on resource aloocation.
- Replace rate of fertility: India’s present population is already 1.4 billion, which is expected to cross 1.6 billion before declining. India has achieved replacement rate of fertility, which will provide a sustainable base to support intergenerational transition and serve as the backbone to the economy.
- Share of age groups: In the coming decades, age group from 0-14 and 15-24 will show a declining trend and an increasing trend in 25-65 and 65+ age group.