Russia's Updated Nuclear Doctrine

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an updated version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which outlines when Russia may use its vast nuclear arsenal. This update comes amid rising tensions with the West, particularly because of US military aid to Ukraine. The new doctrine suggests that long-range missiles provided by the US to Ukraine could trigger a nuclear response from Russia.

Key Changes in the Nuclear Doctrine

• The new policy document declares that Russia "takes all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of interstate relations that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones".
• Nuclear deterrence is aimed to ensure that any potential adversary realises the inevitability of retribution in case of an aggression against Russia and its allies.
• Russia views nuclear weapons as a last resort to protect its sovereignty and territory.
• The doctrine articulates Moscow could use nuclear weapons "in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction" against Russia or its allies.
• Conditions for Nuclear Use: The new doctrine makes it easier for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
• Main situations where Russia might consider using them:
  • Nuclear or Mass Destruction Weapons Attacks: If Russia or its allies are attacked with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.
  • Conventional Attack on Russia or Allies: If there is an aggression using conventional (non-nuclear) weapons that threatens Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
  • Attack on Key Military or Government Targets: If an enemy attacks critical Russian military or government facilities, weakening Russia’s ability to retaliate.
  • Imminent Threats: If Russia detects an incoming missile or aircraft that poses a significant threat to its territory or allies.
  • Support from Nuclear Powers: If a non-nuclear country attacks Russia, but is supported by a nuclear-armed country (like the US), Russia will treat it as an attack by the entire military bloc.
• Focus on Nuclear-backed Attacks: One important change is that the new doctrine treats attacks by non-nuclear countries supported by nuclear powers (e.g., US-supplied weapons to Ukraine) as a joint attack, meaning Russia could target not just the attacker but also the nuclear power backing them.
• Goal of Deterrence: The core purpose remains the deterrence of aggression. The doctrine aims to ensure that potential adversaries understand the inevitable retaliation they would face if they attack Russia or its allies.

Why Did Russia Update Its Nuclear Doctrine?

• The new version of the nuclear doctrine was approved shortly after Ukraine used ATACMS missiles, supplied by the US, to strike Russian territory.
• Such missile strikes, especially from NATO-backed Ukraine, could trigger a nuclear response according to the new doctrine.

Global Security Concerns and Policy Implications:

• Dangerous Precedent:Russia’s actions may embolden other nations like Iran and North Korea to consider or flaunt nuclear capabilities as a deterrent in conventional conflicts. This could lead to an increase in nuclear arsenals globally and undermine efforts toward nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.
• Erosion of Non-Proliferation Efforts:The war has highlighted the vulnerabilities of non-nuclear states, potentially motivating them to seek nuclear capabilities. The Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for security assurances, now appears ineffective, potentially discouraging future disarmament agreements.
• Shift in Nuclear Deterrence:The traditional clear distinction between nuclear and conventional warfare is being blurred. Russia’s signaling suggests that nuclear weapons might be considered for coercion in lower-stakes conflicts, thereby altering the global nuclear deterrence landscape.

Challenges and Future Implications:

• Increased Proliferation Risk:Smaller states in conflict-prone regions may pursue nuclear capabilities to secure asymmetric advantages in conventional warfare, increasing regional and global proliferation anxieties.
• Undermining Global Stability:The potential for tactical nuclear weapon use in conventional conflicts poses severe risks to global stability, threatening to replace the deterrent effect with an escalatory spiral.
• Need for Revised International Policies:The international community must reassess and strengthen nuclear non-proliferation treaties and mechanisms to address the emerging threats posed by such nuclear posturing and to ensure global security.