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The ‘geo-calculus’ of the Moscow visit
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Context
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia, his first bilateral trip in the current tenure of the government, has drawn significant attention and criticism from the United States and Europe, as well as the President of Ukraine. The visit highlights the ongoing strategic and diplomatic recalibration in light of the conflict in Ukraine and India's positioning in global geopolitics.
Assessment of the Conflict in Ukraine
- Timing and Significance: Modi’s visit to Russia, two years after the Ukraine war began, reflects a shift in New Delhi’s assessment of the conflict's progression and Russia's resilience.
- Conflict Dynamics: Despite initial setbacks, Russia now appears to be maintaining its territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, influencing India’s stance on the conflict.
- Diplomatic Positioning: India’s abstention from UN votes criticizing Russia and the joint statement language indicates a subtle acceptance of Russia's position and a strategic calculation in maintaining bilateral ties.
Geopolitical Signalling
- China-Russia Relations: By prioritizing his visit to Moscow over attending the SCO Summit with Xi Jinping, Modi signals India's strategic choice to balance relations with Russia amid tensions with China.
- Western Alignments: The visit underscores India's concerns over U.S. actions in forming exclusive strategic groups like AUKUS and the Quad Plus, highlighting India's desire for greater autonomy in its foreign policy.
- Indo-Pacific Strategy: India’s engagement with Russia serves as a reminder of its options beyond western alliances, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a multipolar diplomatic approach.
Geo-economic Thrust
- Trade Dynamics: The visit focuses on strengthening economic ties, particularly through discounted oil imports and potential circumvention of western sanctions to sustain trade growth.
- Energy Cooperation: Agreements to enhance energy supplies and mutual investments, such as the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor, aim to address trade imbalances and boost economic cooperation.
- Strategic Investments: With significant investments in each other’s oil sectors and potential new deals, India and Russia are leveraging geo-economic strategies to reinforce their bilateral relationship amid global uncertainties.
UPSC Mains Question
Q. How does India's engagement with Russia in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine reflect India's broader foreign policy objectives and its stance on international relations?
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