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The U.S.-Saudi Agreement, from Fist-bump to Embrace
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Context
The evolving dynamics of the U.S.-Saudi relations is marked by a historical "oil-for-security" arrangement and the current negotiations for a Strategic Alliance Agreement (SAA), which aims to address mutual domestic and regional ambitions.
The Layers to the Agreement
- Bilateral Relations: The proposed SAA would formalize the U.S.-Saudi alliance into a strategic defense pact similar to the U.S.-Japan treaty, potentially including the provision of F-35 stealth fighters and nuclear technology for peaceful use.
- Regional Impact: Saudi Arabia seeks a ceasefire in Gaza and progress towards a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine. In return, the U.S. expects Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel and limit its foreign policy ties with China and Russia.
- Economic Implications: The SAA could ensure that a significant portion of projects under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 benefits American companies, maintaining economic coordination despite the U.S. no longer depending on Saudi oil.
The Hurdles
- Bilateral Trust Deficit: Historical events like the 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities and U.S. actions during the Yemeni war have eroded trust. Saudi Arabia’s increasing ties with China and Russia and its reconciliation with Iran also pose challenges.
- Gaza Conflict: The ongoing conflict makes it politically difficult for Saudi Arabia to reconcile with Israel. U.S. Senate approval for the SAA requires significant progress towards peace in Gaza and a two-state solution.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Regional stability is crucial for the SAA. Events such as Hamas’ attack on Israel and shifting alliances indicate the complex geopolitical landscape that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia must navigate.
India’s Stakes
- Regional Stability: An SAA could enhance stability in the Gulf and West Asia, which is beneficial for India’s economic and strategic interests.
- Economic Opportunities: The agreement might create new opportunities within the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.
- Strategic Policy: India should continue its “Act West” policy independently, while monitoring developments between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
UPSC Mains Questions
Q. Discuss the implications of the proposed U.S.-Saudi Strategic Alliance Agreement on the geopolitical landscape of West Asia.
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