Three Neighbourhood Question

India has faced significant setbacks in its foreign and security interests in its immediate neighbourhood over the past few years. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh was forced to resign and flee amid protests, Mohamed Muizzu's election in Maldives threatens to reduce Indian influence while enhancing China's presence, and Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani had to escape as the Taliban took over. These events prompt questions about the effectiveness of India's foreign policy and security structures.

Foreign Policy Setbacks

• Bangladesh Crisis: Sheikh Hasina's abrupt resignation and escape reflect a sudden and severe political instability in a key ally.
• Maldives Shift: Mohamed Muizzu’s presidency indicates a strategic pivot towards China, undermining India's regional influence.
• Afghanistan's Fall: The swift Taliban takeover caught India off-guard, despite significant diplomatic investment in the Ghani administration.

Policy-making Structures

• Role of MEA and IFS: The Ministry of External Affairs and the Indian Foreign Service are responsible for managing foreign relations and should provide competent and informed guidance.
• Intelligence and Diplomacy: The external intelligence service and diplomatic missions are expected to offer critical insights but may have failed to anticipate these rapid changes.
• Coordination Issues: Effective foreign policy requires harmonious functioning among MEA, intelligence agencies, and other relevant bodies.

Security Structures and Challenges

• NSA and NSCS Evolution: Since the creation of the National Security Advisor and National Security Council Secretariat, there has been an effort to streamline strategic and security management.
• Complex Security Dynamics: New global and regional security challenges necessitate updated and coordinated responses, which might be hindered by internal "turf" issues.
• Surprise Element: Despite robust structures, the Indian system's surprise at rapid changes in Afghanistan, Maldives, and Bangladesh raises concerns about the effectiveness of these mechanisms.

Mains Question

Q. Discuss the recent setbacks in India's foreign and security interests in its neighbouring countries. Analyze whether these issues stem from misjudgements by policymakers or structural deficiencies in India's foreign and security policy-making institutions. Evaluate the effectiveness of India's current policy-making and security structures in addressing such challenges.