WMO: Climate Outlook for 2025–2029

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its latest decadal climate prediction, indicating a high probability that global temperatures will remain at or near record levels during the period 2025–2029. The projections underscore the increasing likelihood of breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold, even if temporarily, with significant implications for ecosystems, human livelihoods, and the achievement of the Paris Agreement objectives.

Key highlights of report:

Decadal Climate Projections and Global Warming Trends

• Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts for 2025–2029
  • There is an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024, which currently holds the record for the warmest year.
  • An 86% probability exists that at least one year in the same period will record a global mean temperature of over 5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline).
  • There is a 70% probability that the five-year mean global warming during 2025–2029 will exceed 5°C, up from 47% in the 2024–2028 forecast.
  • Central estimate for 20-year global warming (2015–2034): 44°C with a confidence interval of 1.22°C to 1.54°C.
• Importance of the 1.5°C Threshold in Climate Agreements
  • The Paris Agreement (2015) aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally to 5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
  • Temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold are expected to become increasingly frequent and are viewed as precursors to potentially irreversible climatic tipping points.

Regional Climate Implications and Specific Projections

• Arctic Amplification and Its Global Consequences
  • Arctic warming during November–March (2025–2029) is projected to exceed three and a half times the global mean, with temperature anomalies estimated at +2.4°C over the 1991–2020 average.
  • The amplification accelerates polar ice melt, contributing to sea-level rise and disruption of global weather systems.
• Decline in Sea Ice Cover
  • Model simulations indicate reductions in sea ice concentration in key Arctic seas—Barents, Bering, and Sea of Okhotsk—during March months across the forecast period.
  • This trend exacerbates the albedo effect, further intensifying global warming.
• Shifts in Global Precipitation Patterns
  • Wetter-than-average conditions are projected in Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Northern Siberia.
  • Conversely, drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the Amazon Basin, with serious consequences for the region’s carbon sink function and biodiversity.
  • South Asia is expected to witness above-average precipitation, although intra-seasonal variability will persist, complicating agricultural planning.

Projected Impacts and Socioeconomic Consequences

• Intensification of Climate-Related Disasters
  • The continued rise in global temperatures is likely to cause more frequent and severe heatwaves, floods, droughts, glacial retreat, and sea-level rise.
  • These phenomena directly affect food security, water availability, disaster preparedness, and public health
• Developmental and Economic Disruptions
  • Adverse climate conditions threaten progress on multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably:
    • SDG 13 – Climate Action
    • SDG 2 – Zero Hunger
    • SDG 6 – Clean Water and Sanitation
  • Impacts are disproportionately severe in vulnerable and low-income regions, exacerbating existing inequalities.

 Institutional Response and Global Climate Governance

• Role of WMO and IPCC in Climate Monitoring
  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) synthesizes forecasts from global climate centres to assist policymakers with evidence-based decision-making.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines global warming in terms of 20-year averages and provides central estimates along with confidence intervals for long-term tracking.
• Relevance of COP30 and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
  • The upcoming COP30 will play a pivotal role in evaluating updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
  • These revised commitments are essential to align national actions with the 5°C and 2°C goals under the Paris Agreement framework.

Implications for India

India is acutely vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on monsoon cycles, glacial water sources, and coastal settlements.

• Erratic precipitation could disrupt agricultural productivity and affect rural livelihoods.
• Accelerated glacier melting in the Himalayas threatens water security for major river systems.
• Rising sea levels endanger coastal infrastructure, biodiversity, and human habitations, especially in cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhancing Climate Resilience in Agriculture
  • Promotion of climate-smart agriculture, drought-resistant crop varieties, and robust irrigation infrastructure.
• Urban Climate Adaptation Measures
  • Integration of heatwave action plans, urban afforestation, and sustainable drainage systems into city planning.
• Strengthening Climate Institutions and Finance
  • Investment in domestic climate modeling and early warning systems (e.g., IMD, NCMRWF).
  • Increased international climate finance for mitigation and adaptation under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.
• Diplomatic Engagement and Global Advocacy
  • India must assert leadership by advocating climate justice at COP30 while implementing its updated NDCs (2022), including commitments to non-fossil energy sources and emissions intensity reduction.