India's aim of becoming the third-largest economy by 2028 must include an enhanced participation of women in the formal sector, and manufacturing can help in it.
Gender Disparities in Financial Security
Gender Gap in National Pension Schemes: NPS data shows that only 22% women subscribers of APY slightly better at 46:54. Gender disparities rooted in informal work and biological roles.
Challenges in Maternity Benefits: The Maternity Benefit Act of 1961 offers paid leave but applies mainly to establishments with over ten employees, leaving the vast informal sector uncovered.
Sexual Harassment Protection: The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace Act of 2013 requires local committees for informal sector cases but faces implementation challenges.
Need for Gender-Inclusive Growth
Low Female Labour Force Participation: India's female labour force participation rate is one of the world's lowest, particularly among G20 nations, at 23%.
Importance of Formal Employment: Gender-inclusive growth is vital for empowering women in decision-making and socio-political independence.
Creating Formal employment: India must prioritize gender inclusivity in formal employment, including the manufacturing sector, to harness its economic potential.
Fostering Inclusive Workforce Participation
Opportunities in the Manufacturing Sector: Female participation in the sector has been stagnant, hovering around 20%, lagging behind East Asian and Pacific countries.
Path to Economic Empowerment: Fostering gender-inclusive growth will not only empower women but also contribute significantly to the nation's economic progress.
Way forward: India's aspirations in the global economic landscape depend on equal opportunities and a diverse, inclusive workforce.
India must redouble efforts to make economic growth more inclusive and broad-based.
India's Ambitious Technological Pursuits
Government Investment in Advanced Technologies: India invested in advanced tech during the 1950s-60s, creating prestigious institutions and showcasing its resolve to excel in innovation.
Criticism of the Moonshot Strategy: Critics questioned India's public investment in tech, suggesting a focus on labor-intensive industries. Yet, technology's high costs required public backing.
Efforts and Vision: Leaders like Vikram Sarabhai saw the potential of technologies like satellites for national development, including telecommunications and education.
Inequalities and Hindrances to Progress
Inequalities in Land Ownership: India's failure in land redistribution limited assets for marginalized groups, obstructing education and perpetuating social inequalities in the job market.
Impact on Economic Growth: Inequalities hindered India's economic growth, skewed domestic demand, stunted mass-consumption industries, and stifled entrepreneurial diversity and innovation.
Lack of investment in key industries: To compete in rapidly growing economic fields like semiconductors and biotechnology, India must reinstate such efforts.
Revisiting India's Development Strategy
The Need for Generous State Support: India must acknowledge past success in tech and industry, reinstate state support, and revise industrial policies, following global examples.
Promoting Inclusive Growth: India should focus on making economic growth more inclusive and broad-based.
Focus on Accessibility to education, especially higher education, should be extended to all, including marginalized and disadvantaged populations.
The discrepancies in measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can make price volatility and consumers drawbacks.
Disputes over India's GDP Growth Rate
Data Interpretation Discrepancies: Critiques incorrectly measure real GDP, highlighting the volatility of GDP price deflator. Normalizing data reveals less significant gaps, but substituting with a stable CPI measure suggests higher GDP growth rates.
GDP Price Deflator vs. CPI: The GDP price deflator's volatility is influenced by factors like the Ukraine war and pandemic, impacting nominal GDP.
Expenditure components of GDP: Expenditures are analysed over varying periods to substantiate claims of economic deceleration.
Critiques of the National Statistical Office
Criticism of GDP Growth Number: The argument revolves around a perceived underestimation of GDP's output value in the first quarter.
Comparison with US GDP Data: The US GDP data, often considered a benchmark, also experiences some divergence between GDP and GDI.
Manufacturing sector and comparison: The 8% growth estimate for the first quarter but note potential manufacturing sector bias.
Defending the Statistical Methodology
Appreciating the Methodology: Articles disputing GDP growth should acknowledge the methodology used in national accounts computation.
Administrative body responsible: Casting aspersions on the statistical body is unwarranted when the economic momentum remains strong.
India’s ability for growth: India's robust economic growth is likely to continue, making it one of the world's fastest-growing economies.
India needs clear research and development plan to scale up ethanol production.
India's Growing Import Dependence and Bioenergy Potential
High Import Dependence and Energy Security: India's FY2023 import dependency on oil is 87.3%, costing 25.8% of imports.
Resource availability: Biomass provided up to 20% of India's total primary energy supply in the past decade, mainly for households.
Role of the Global Biofuel Alliance: India's G20 presidency formed the Global Biofuel Alliance, aiming to harness biomass as clean bio-energy.
Progress in Ethanol Blending
Future Goals: Plans to increase blending to 20% (E20) by FY25-26 are accelerated, demanding substantial investments and feedstock.
Challenges in Reducing Petrol Demand: A NITI Aayog report projects a 45% growth in petrol demand by 2030, necessitating solutions beyond blending.
Chase the alternatives: Electric vehicles (EVs) face mineral and component challenges, making biofuels and flex-fuel vehicles viable alternatives.
Scaling Up Ethanol Production and Addressing Tradeoffs
Focus on First-Generation Ethanol Production: India predominantly relies on first-generation ethanol production, primarily from food crops like sugarcane and grain.
Reducing Petrol Consumption: Policy should prioritize reducing overall petrol consumption and private demand through strategies like EV promotion.
Promoting Biofuels: A well-planned transition strategy can not only reduce the import bill but also aid the automotive industry's EV transition.