GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

The delay in the anticipated onset of La Niña this year has raised concerns among meteorologists and climate experts. India, which heavily depends on the monsoon for agricultural and water resources, had anticipated enhanced rainfall during the August-September period due to La Niña. However, with the phenomenon's onset delayed, questions arise about the likely impact on the ongoing monsoon and why global weather models failed to predict this accurately.

What is La Niña?

• La Niña is a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a critical climate pattern that influences global weather. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO Phases: The ENSO cycle consists of three phases:
  • El Niño (warmer sea temperatures)
  • La Niña (cooler sea temperatures)
  • Neutral (average sea temperatures)
• Impact on Global Weather: La Niña affects global atmospheric circulation, leading to alterations in weather patterns worldwide. For example, it can enhance monsoon activity in India.

Predictions and Current Status

• Initial Predictions: Global models forecasted that La Niña would emerge around July 2024. The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) projected a transition from neutral to La Niña conditions between August and October.
• Current Situation: By mid-July, it became evident that La Niña would not materialize as predicted. Current forecasts suggest that La Niña might begin showing signs by late September or early October, peaking in November and persisting through the northern hemisphere winter.

Impact of delayed La Ni Niña on India’s Monsoon

• Monsoon Influence: La Niña typically boosts the southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September in India. The delay in La Niña’s onset means its direct impact on the current monsoon is minimal.
• Rainfall Data: India recorded a 16% surplus in rainfall for August 2024. Forecasts for September predict 109% of normal rainfall, and overall, the monsoon season has seen an 8% increase in rainfall compared to the average. Regional variations persist, with some areas experiencing deficient rainfall.

Factors Contributing to Forecast Inaccuracies

• Weak La Niña: Weather models are more adept at predicting strong La Niña or El Niño events. The current weak La Niña has been challenging to detect accurately.
• Complex Interactions: Other climatic factors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which influences atmospheric conditions, add to the complexity of accurate predictions. These interactions can affect the timing and intensity of La Niña conditions.

In a significant effort to bolster security and defence cooperation, the European Union (EU) recently organized a study visit for senior Indian officials from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Ministry of Defence. The visit aimed to deepen ties between India and the EU, specifically focusing on Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.

Why is Indo-Pacific region so significant?

• India’s definition of the “Indo-Pacific” stretches from the Eastern coast of Africa to the islands of the South Pacific. 
• Global trade and maritime security: Almost 60 percent of global GDP and two thirds of global growth are generated in the Indo-Pacific. As much as 25 percent of international maritime trade passes through the Strait of Malacca alone.
• Home to largest economies: The Indo-Pacific region is home to around 60 percent of the global population and 20 of the world’s 33 megacities.
• Key-player: It is also the source of more than half of all global carbon emissions. This makes the region’s countries key players in tackling global challenges such as the climate crisis.

India’s strategy for Indo-Pacific

• India has been active in championing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. India has been an active participant in mechanisms such as the
  • Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)
  • East Asia Summit
  • ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus
  • ASEAN Regional Forum
  • Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
  • Mekong Ganga Economic Corridor
• Through the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC), India is moving towards engaging with the Pacific Island countries.
• Recognising important groupings: India supports ASEAN centrality in the evolving Indo-Pacific regional architecture, but also works with groupings such as the Quad, IORA and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), among others.
• India’s trade in this region is growing rapidly, with overseas investments being directed towards the East, e.g., the
  • Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Singapore
  • Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN and Thailand
  • Evolving “Act East Policy” comprising economic engagement with Southeast Asia and strategic cooperation beyond that to East Asia (Japan, Republic of Korea), Australia, New Zealand, as well as the Pacific Island countries

Punjab and Haryana, two key states in India's Green Revolution history, are facing contrasting agricultural challenges. This issue is significant as both states have significantly shaped India's rice and wheat production.

Agricultural Patterns in Punjab

• Monoculture Dominance:
  • Rice-Wheat Cycle: Punjab’s agriculture is heavily reliant on a monoculture system, focusing predominantly on rice and wheat. Rice is grown during the kharif season (monsoon), while wheat is cultivated in the rabi season (winter-spring).
  • Crop Share: Over the past five years, rice has occupied about 86.8% of Punjab’s kharif crop area, and wheat has covered approximately 97.9% of the rabi area.
• Expansion and Challenges:
  • Increased Area: The area under rice cultivation in Punjab has risen significantly from 20.2 lakh hectares in 1990-91 to 31.9 lakh hectares in 2023-24. Wheat cultivation has also increased, though less dramatically.
  • Water Use and Groundwater Depletion: Rice is water-intensive, requiring about 25 irrigations compared to wheat's 4-5. This has led to severe groundwater depletion and fiscal issues related to grain procurement and storage.

Agricultural Patterns in Haryana

• Diversification Approach:
  • Varied Cropping: Haryana exhibits a more diversified cropping pattern.
    • Kharif season: Rice occupies less than half of the crop area, while crops like cotton, bajra (pearl millet), and guar (cluster bean) are also cultivated.
    • Rabi season: Rapeseed-mustard, chickpea, and sunflower.
  • Basmati vs. Non-Basmati Rice: Haryana’s rice cultivation includes a significant portion of basmati varieties (56.2% of rice area), which are less water-intensive and not subject to fixed minimum support prices (MSP), reducing surplus issues.
• Irrigation and Crop Mix:
  • Irrigation Infrastructure: Haryana has an extensive canal network but faces irrigation constraints in southern districts. This limited irrigation leads to the cultivation of drought-resistant crops like bajra and guar in those areas.
  • Challenges and Adjustments: Haryana’s government promotes crop diversification through MSP and the Bhavantar Bharpai Yojana (BBY) scheme to cover price differences for crops like bajra, mustard, and sunflower.

Environmental and Economic Impacts

• Punjab:

• Environmental Strain: The heavy reliance on rice has strained water resources and contributed to groundwater depletion.
• Economic Concerns: The surplus grain procurement has led to high fiscal costs and logistical challenges.

• Haryana:

• Balanced Approach: Haryana’s diversified cropping helps in managing water resources better and reduces reliance on a single crop.
• Promotion of Diversification: The state's policies and incentives aim to balance agricultural risk and economic stability by encouraging a range of crops.

Recent discussions before a parliamentary committee have highlighted significant tensions between the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) and the Waqf Board concerning the management of historical monuments. The ASI has raised concerns about the administrative conflicts and conservation issues arising from the dual designation of certain protected monuments as Waqf properties. This debate unfolds as the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024, is under review.

Key Issues Raised by ASI

• The ASI manages and conserves monuments classified under the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains Act (AMASR Act).
• Simultaneously, some of these monuments have been declared as Waqf properties under the Waqf Act, 1995.
• Examples:
  • The Fatehpur Sikri in Agra and Atala Masjid in Jaunpur are cited as examples where such dual authority has led to conflicts.
  • The Atala Masjid in Jaunpur has reportedly seen shops constructed within its precincts, and fittings in Mecca Masjid, Ahmednagar, were installed without ASI approval.

Recent research has identified a potential link between light pollution and Alzheimer's disease.

About Light Pollution

• This refers to the excessive, misdirected, or obtrusive artificial light that interferes with natural darkness.
• It is commonly caused by streetlights, advertisements, and other outdoor lighting that illuminates the night sky.
• Prevalence: Approximately 80% of the global population is affected by light pollution, which is prevalent in urban and suburban areas where artificial lighting is extensive.
• Impact
  • Health Effects: Light pollution disrupts natural circadian rhythms, which can lead to various health problems, including sleep disorders, increased stress levels, obesity, diabetes, and depression, conditions.
  • Environmental Impact: It disrupts ecosystems and natural behaviors in nocturnal animals.

Alzheimer's Disease

• Alzheimer’s disease is a brain disorder that slowly destroys memory and thinking skills
• It is the most common form of dementia, characterized by progressive cognitive decline. It leads to severe memory loss, confusion, and difficulties with everyday tasks.
• Pathology: The disease involves the accumulation of amyloid plaques and tau tangles in the brain, which impair neuron function and lead to memory and cognitive deficits.
  • Tau is a protein that when it occurs in tangled formations in the brain of Alzheimer patients, disrupts the ability of neurons to communicate with one another in the brain.
• Treatment: There is currently no known cure for Alzheimer’s disease. Treatment addresses several areas:
  • Helping people maintain brain health.
  • Managing behavioral symptoms.
  • Slowing or delaying symptoms of the disease.
• Prevalence and Impact:

• Global Statistics: Over 55 million people globally suffer from dementia, with Alzheimer’s accounting for about 75% of these cases.
• In India: An estimated 3 to 9 million Indians are affected by Alzheimer's, a number expected to rise with an aging population.

The recent diplomatic and strategic challenges for India have highlighted the growing complexities in its relationships with neighboring countries and the need for effective statecraft. Despite efforts to manage border tensions and regional influence, India faces significant obstacles in securing its strategic interests and maintaining a stable neighborhood. This situation underscores the necessity for a refined approach to national security and strategic policy.

Current Diplomatic and Strategic Challenges

• Border Tensions with China: Despite repeated meetings, India and China have not resolved border disputes, leading to ongoing military standoffs in the Himalayas. China's continued fortification of positions and strategic initiatives like border defense villages highlight persistent tensions.
• Shifts in Regional Alliances: India’s influence in neighboring countries such as the Maldives and Bangladesh has waned due to shifting local political sentiments and alignment with China. This change has impacted India's strategic interests in the region and its overall influence.
• Internal and External Perceptions: India's self-perception as a benevolent power contrasts with its neighbors' views of it as a "big brother" or bully. Domestic political issues and provocative rhetoric are believed to contribute to this negative perception, affecting diplomatic relations.

Strategic and Economic Vulnerabilities

• Trade Deficit and Strategic Dependence: India's substantial trade deficit with China, coupled with dependency on critical imports, limits its strategic maneuverability. The growing reliance on imports of electronics, pharmaceuticals, and rare-earths exacerbates this vulnerability.
• Defence Import Reliance: India's heavy dependence on defense imports from conflict-prone countries like Russia, Israel, and Ukraine constrains its strategic autonomy. Developing indigenous defense capabilities and diversifying supply chains are crucial for national security.
• Nuclear Deterrence Gaps: China and Pakistan have advanced their nuclear capabilities, challenging India’s strategic deterrence. India must enhance its nuclear strategy to address potential threats and maintain credibility in its deterrence posture.

Practice Question

Q. Discuss the strategic challenges India faces in maintaining its influence and securing its interests in the region amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics. How should India address its strategic vulnerabilities and enhance its statecraft to achieve its national security objectives?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Singapore and his upcoming trip to Brunei signify a renewed focus on strengthening India’s engagement with Southeast Asia and the broader Pacific region. This diplomatic push reflects India's intent to bolster its regional presence and address gaps in its trade and strategic relationships.

Diplomatic Engagements and Regional Strategy

• Rebooting Partnerships: The recent high-level visits by Indian leaders, including PM Modi’s engagements with Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam, demonstrate India’s commitment to reinvigorating its relationships in Southeast Asia. This renewed focus aims to capitalize on the goodwill and high expectations from the region.
• Balancing Regional Interests: Despite recent attention to the Gulf region, India’s strategic pivot back to Southeast Asia highlights its balanced approach to regional diplomacy. Modi’s reaffirmation of support for ASEAN and its central role in regional security aligns with India’s broader geopolitical strategy amid the US-China rivalry.
• Strengthening Defense and Security Ties: India’s efforts to reassure ASEAN partners and enhance defense cooperation reflect a strategic intent to integrate more closely with the regional security architecture. This approach underscores India’s commitment to regional stability and security cooperation.

Trade and Economic Commitments

• RCEP Withdrawal Impact: India’s decision to exit the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations has caused disappointment among key regional players, such as Singapore. This move has raised concerns about India’s commitment to regional trade liberalization and integration.
• Focus on Bilateral Trade Agreements: In response to the RCEP setback, India is working to strengthen bilateral trade and investment ties with major Southeast Asian economies. This includes exploring new areas of cooperation, such as digitalization, health, space technology, and advanced manufacturing.
• Semiconductor Diplomacy: India’s emphasis on semiconductor collaboration with Malaysia and Singapore highlights its strategic interest in advancing technological partnerships. The successful implementation of these agreements could enhance India’s position in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Practice Question

Q. How can India address the challenges and opportunities in trade and economic cooperation with Southeast Asian nations following its withdrawal from the RCEP?

The Finance Minister's final 2024-25 Union Budget outlines plans to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26, aiming for a declining debt-GDP ratio post-2026-27. However, this move is seen as deviating from the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) 2018 targets, raising concerns about long-term fiscal prudence.

Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Management

• Importance of Fiscal Consolidation: Fiscal consolidation is crucial to ensure sustainable government debt levels and avoid excessive borrowing. By targeting a declining debt-GDP ratio, the government seeks to stabilize fiscal policy and maintain macroeconomic stability.
• Debt-GDP Ratio and Fiscal Deficit: The current fiscal deficit targets, set at 4.5% of GDP, may help in managing the debt-GDP ratio but do not specify clear long-term targets. This approach could lead to a gradual decline in the debt-GDP ratio without immediate stringent targets.
• Impact on Private Sector and Savings: With the government's high fiscal deficit, the investible surplus for the private sector may be constrained. Household financial savings have decreased, and high fiscal deficits might preempt private sector investment, limiting economic growth.

International Comparison and Challenges

• Global Context of Debt-GDP Ratios: Compared to international standards, India's interest payments relative to revenue receipts are high. Countries like Japan, the UK, and the US have lower ratios of interest payments to revenue, reflecting more manageable debt burdens.
• Historical Context and Current Trajectory: India’s debt-GDP ratio surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, and returning to pre-pandemic levels is proving challenging. The asymmetric adjustment path suggests difficulties in rapidly reducing debt while managing high interest payments.
• Need for Strict Fiscal Discipline: To ensure sustainable economic growth, India must adhere to a 3% GDP limit for fiscal deficit. A clear roadmap to achieve this target is essential to avoid fiscal imprudence and maintain investor confidence.

Practice Question

Q. What is the significance of fiscal consolidation in managing government debt and its impact on the broader economy?