23rd April 2025 (3 Topics)
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Exploring India’s potential in the Arctic region
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Context
The upcoming Arctic Circle India Forum 2025 is set to deepen India’s engagement in Arctic geopolitics and climate discourse. This is significant as the Arctic sea ice is shrinking by 12.2% per decade (NASA), opening the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—a new global trade corridor. The development coincides with warnings that global temperatures breached the 1.5°C threshold in 2024 (Nature Climate Change), underlining the region’s urgency.
Shrinking Ice and Trade Realignment
- Emergence of NSR: The Northern Sea Route, linking the Atlantic and Pacific, is now navigable due to rapid Arctic melt, offering the shortest route between Europe and Asia, thereby reducing shipping time and cost.
- Cargo Surge: Cargo through the NSR increased from 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to 37.9 million tonnes in 2024, showing its growing strategic importance for global trade.
- India’s Maritime Calculus: India views the NSR through both economic and geopolitical lenses, aligning its port development strategy with this evolving trade reality.
India’s Scientific and Diplomatic Footprint
- Early Engagement: India signed the Svalbard Treaty in 1920 and established the Himadri research station in the Arctic, making it the only developing country besides China with a permanent base.
- Climate Linkages: Indian agencies have modeled how Arctic ice loss could impact Indian monsoons and agricultural yields, underlining domestic climate vulnerability.
- Arctic Policy of 2022: India’s Arctic policy outlines five pillars but needs clearer timelines and institutional mechanisms to transition from policy to execution.
Geopolitical and Diplomatic Dimensions
- Russia Partnership: India and Russia formed a working group on the NSR, and the Chennai–Vladivostok corridor may enhance India’s Arctic access.
- China and Polar Silk Road: India’s Arctic role must be cautious, as aligning too closely with Russia may support China’s Polar Silk Road
- Governance Reform Push: By hosting the forum, India can advocate greater Global South participation and reforms in Arctic Council
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