Indian Government Bonds in JP Morgan index

The inclusion of Indian Government Bonds (IGBS) in JP Morgan's emerging markets bond indices starting from June 28, 2024, marks a significant milestone for India's economic strategy and global financial integration. This move is expected to attract substantial foreign investment, impacting various economic facets such as external finances, foreign exchange reserves, and inflation management.

Inclusion Details and Eligibility Criteria:

• Index Inclusion Timeline: Inclusion in JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global index suite begins June 28, 2024. Phased inclusion over 10 months until March 31, 2025. India expected to reach maximum weight of 10% in GBI-EM Global Diversified Index
• Eligible Bonds and Criteria: 23 IGBs meet index eligibility criteria, with combined notional value of ~Rs 27 lakh crore ($330 billion). Only Fully Accessible Route (FAR) designated IGBs are eligible. Bonds must have notional outstanding above $1 billion and at least 2.5 years remaining maturity. Initially, only FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be considered
• Additional Index Inclusion: Bloomberg announced inclusion of Indian government bonds in its Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index. Bloomberg inclusion set to begin from January 31, 2025, with initial weight of 10% of full market value

Expected Inflows and Economic Impact:

• Projected Capital Inflows: Estimated $20-25 billion inflows over the 10-month inclusion period. Monthly inflows expected to range between $2-3 billion. Since September 2023 announcement, IGBs have already seen inflows of $10.4 billion.
• Economic Benefits: Enhanced ability to finance fiscal and current account deficits. Potential lowering of risk premia and funding costs for government securities. Support for further development of domestic capital markets. Current account surplus of $5.7 billion (0.6% of GDP) in January-March 2024 quarter.
• Market Dynamics: Diversification of investor base for Indian government securities. Increased liquidity in government bond market. Potential for slight lowering of government borrowing costs

Challenges and Policy Implications:

• Inflation Management: Higher inflows likely to put pressure on inflation. RBI to release equivalent rupees when mopping up dollar inflows, potentially increasing money supply
• RBI's Response: Governor Shaktikanta Das affirms RBI's preparedness to manage inflow surges. Multiple instruments available to central bank for flow management. Past experience in handling similar situations cited as reassurance.
• External Sector Impacts: Boost to foreign exchange reserves expected. Potential strengthening of Indian rupee against major currencies. Need for careful balance between welcoming inflows and managing domestic monetary conditions.

UPSC Mains Questions:

Q. Analyze the potential impacts of Indian Government Bonds' inclusion in global indices on India's external sector and domestic financial markets. How can policymakers balance the benefits and challenges arising from increased foreign inflows?