The issue of India’s economic growth versus emissions

The Indian Economic Survey (2023-24) claims that India has decoupled its economic growth from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Between 2005 and 2019, India’s GDP grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, while emissions grew at a slower CAGR of 4%. This claim raises questions about the possibility and implications of decoupling in India’s context, especially concerning sustainable development and environmental goals.

Understanding Decoupling

• Types of Decoupling: Decoupling refers to breaking the link between economic growth and environmental degradation. It is classified into two types: absolute decoupling, where economic growth occurs without increasing emissions, and relative decoupling, where GDP grows faster than emissions, but emissions still rise.
• Global Imperative for Decoupling: As the climate crisis escalates, decoupling becomes crucial for nations aiming to sustain economic growth while reducing their environmental footprint. This aligns with the global push for green growth, where economic development is pursued with reduced environmental harm.
• Debate on Growth Models: While proponents of green growth advocate for economic expansion alongside environmental preservation, degrowth advocates argue that economic growth itself exacerbates ecological degradation and should be restrained. However, the degrowth approach overlooks the need to address poverty and improve living standards through economic growth.

India’s Decoupling Claim

• Relative Decoupling Achieved: India’s Economic Survey compares the GDP and emissions growth rates from 2005 to 2019, indicating that GDP growth outpaced emissions growth, suggesting relative decoupling. However, it is unclear whether this represents absolute decoupling.
• Sectoral Contribution to Emissions: The agriculture and manufacturing sectors, key contributors to India’s GHG emissions, have shown varying rates of decoupling. Since 1990, while India’s GDP has grown six-fold, emissions have only tripled, indicating relative decoupling across the economy.
• Limitations of Relative Decoupling: Although relative decoupling is a step in the right direction, India has not yet achieved absolute decoupling, where emissions would decline even as GDP grows. Given that India is still in its developmental phase, achieving absolute decoupling will be a long-term and challenging goal.

Challenges and the Path Ahead

• Emissions Growth Despite Economic Progress: India’s emissions are expected to continue rising as economic growth accelerates, especially since it has not yet reached the peak of its emissions. Therefore, absolute decoupling remains an ambitious goal in the near future.
• The Role of Policy and Innovation: Achieving absolute decoupling will require significant efforts, including policies promoting renewable energy, emission mitigation, and sustainable development practices. Continued investment in clean technologies will be crucial for balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability.
• Future Climate Commitments: India’s long-term climate targets necessitate that it works toward achieving both relative and eventually absolute decoupling. This journey will require concerted efforts from the government, businesses, and citizens to ensure that environmental preservation accompanies growth.

Practice Question

Q. Analyze the concept of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions. How can India achieve sustainable development while ensuring continued economic growth?