Fall of Syria

Rebel fighters (Syrian opposition forces) have captured the Syrian capital of Damascus, effectively toppling the Assad regime that has been in power in the country since 1971. Assad was forced to flee the country as Islamist rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).  Assad had been in power since 2000.

Fall of Assad

• The exit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been met with joy in the streets of Damascus.
• Assad, ruling the country since 2000, having inherited the legacy from his father Hafez al-Assad since 1971.
• The regime was marked by repression, censorship and human rights violations.
• Background on Bashar al-Assad:

• Assad’s rise to power: Initially, Assad was seen as a reluctant leader but eventually gained popularity, with 68% of Arabs voting for him in 2009.
• Economic issues: Though Assad initiated some economic reforms, they mainly benefited the elite and worsened inequalities. The lower classes suffered, and there was growing discontent over economic issues and a lack of democratic reforms.
• Arab Spring: The wave of protests in 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring, reached Syria. Assad responded with violent crackdowns, leading to a full-blown civil war. This escalated into a conflict with international dimensions, where the US supported the rebels, while Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah supported Assad. The regime was also accused of using chemical weapons against its people and rebels.
• Impact:The fall of Bashar al-Assad came as a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the heart of the region, key allies who propped up the President during critical periods in the conflict.

Who are the rebels in Syria?

The rebels in Syria have been a diverse and shifting group of factions fighting against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad since 2011. These groups have had different goals, ideologies, and supporters, but they were united by their opposition to Assad's rule. Here's a breakdown of the key developments and players:

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): HTS began as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2011, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. It was formed with the involvement of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS.
• Free Syrian Army (FSA): The FSA was formed in 2011 by defectors from the Syrian army. It was the main opposition group early in the conflict, aiming to overthrow Assad and establish a democratic government. Over time, the FSA lost prominence as more radical and Islamist groups emerged, but remnants of the FSA are still active in areas like the southern regions of Syria. They have been mostly inactive in recent years, but they have revived in the wake of Assad's weakening.
• Kurdish Forces: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), largely led by the YPG (People’s Defense Units), are Kurdish-led forces in the northeast of Syria. The Kurds took advantage of the weakening of Assad’s forces and established control over major cities, including Deir ez-Zor. They have been key in the fight against ISIS and are supported by the United States, but they are also at odds with Turkey, which views Kurdish groups as terrorists.
• Islamic State (ISIS): ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, was once a powerful group in Syria, taking over large parts of the country and declaring a caliphate in 2014. It was a splinter of al-Qaeda and opposed all other factions, including the Assad regime.

 What Is at Stake After Assad's Fall?

• Impact on Iran: Syria has been an important ally for Iran, serving as a strategic route for arms and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Losing Syria would be a significant blow to Iran’s regional influence.
  • Iran’s position in the region, particularly its Axis of Resistance (which includes Syria, Hezbollah, and other groups), is now in jeopardy, complicating its strategic interests in Lebanon and Israel.
• Lebanon: The fall of Syria could disrupt Hezbollah’s supply routes, which pass through Syria from Iran. This would affect Hezbollah’s logistics and its ability to operate in Lebanon, especially in the context of its war with Israel.
• Turkey’s Position: Turkey has supported rebel groups in Syria while also trying to maintain influence over Kurdish separatists along the border. The fall of Assad could reshape Turkey’s policies, particularly in its quest to control northern Syrian areas and counter Kurdish militancy.
• Israel’s Concerns: Although Assad’s regime had not directly threatened Israel, it allowed Iran to use Syrian territory to supply weapons to Hezbollah. The rebellion’s success, however, brings a new problem: HTS, the leading rebel group, has an Islamist agenda and is hostile to Israel.
  • Israel has resumed airstrikes in Syria, targeting strategic military sites, which could further destabilize the region.
• Power Vacuum in Syria: With Assad gone, the power vacuum in Syria is creating uncertainties. The regional balance of power is shifting, with countries like Turkey, Iran, and Israel vying for influence in a post-Assad Syria.