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Xi Jinping is wooing America’s economic partners
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Context
As tensions escalate under Donald Trump’s renewed presidency, China and Russia are intensifying their efforts to weaken US-led alliances in Eurasia by leveraging economic, diplomatic, and regional strategies. This marks a pivotal moment in global geopolitics where the principle of mitra-bhedam—strategic separation of allies—is visibly unfolding.
Strategic Realignment in Eurasia
- Panchatantra’s Mitra-Bhedam in Modern Geopolitics: Russia and China are capitalising on US discontent with allies to weaken post-War alliance structures, aiming to split Washington from key partners in Europe and Asia.
- Trump’s Hostile Policy towards Allies: Criticisms of “free-riding” military partners and economic protectionism through tariffs have strained longstanding alliances, creating openings for adversaries.
- Europe’s Strategic Shift: Disenchanted with US actions on Ukraine and troop deployments, some European nations are engaging more actively with China to protect multilateralism and economic interests.
China’s Neighbourhood Diplomacy and Asian Outreach
- Regional Economic Re-engagement: Xi Jinping’s visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, along with revived trilateral talks with Japan and South Korea, reflect efforts to secure regional loyalty amid US-China tensions.
- Indo-Pacific Counterbalance: As the US strengthens Indo-Pacific ties, Beijing’s “neighbourhood diplomacy” seeks to “shelve differences” and build strategic partnerships with regional states, including India.
- ASEAN and Market Asymmetry: Despite growing trade, Southeast Asian countries face massive deficits with China ($200 bn with ASEAN), questioning Beijing’s sincerity in offering open markets.
Trade Dynamics and Competing Economic Hubs
- US vs China: Market Access Reality Check: Despite Chinese rhetoric on opposing “unilateral bullying,” Southeast Asian nations and India rely heavily on US markets due to favourable trade balances.
- Structural Trade Imbalances: India has a $100 bn deficit with China but a $45 bn surplus with the US, reflecting the economic asymmetry that complicates a pivot to China.
- Asia’s Cautious Calculus: While wary of US protectionism, Asian economies are lining up in Washington to secure trade agreements, indicating enduring American economic centrality.
Practice Question
“The strategic doctrine of ‘mitra-bhedam’ is manifesting in today’s multipolar world order through the efforts of revisionist powers.” Critically examine the relevance of this principle in the context of shifting alliances between the US, China, and regional players in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.
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