A ‘No-Limit’ Bromance that is Not Just a Bilateral Matter

The recent summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, marking the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations, highlights the deepening ties between Russia and China. This relationship, characterized as having "no limits," has significant implications for global geopolitics, especially for countries like India.

The Phases of Russia-China Ties

1. Historical Context: Over the past two centuries, Russia-China relations have gone through several phases. The 19th century saw Czarist Russia expanding into a weakened China, a trend that continued into the Soviet era.
2. Ideological Shifts: After the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, a brief period of “Comintern brotherhood” was disrupted by ideological and geopolitical differences, such as the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s.
3. Modern Realignments: The current phase began in 2012 with increased U.S.-China tensions leading to closer Russia-China ties. The 2022 Beijing Summit declared their relationship to have “no limits,” further solidified by Russia's dependence on China following Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

Joint Statement and Strategic Implications

1. Economic and Military Silence: The joint statement from the recent summit was notably silent on specific economic, financial, and military ties, possibly to avoid further Western sanctions or to mask internal disagreements.
2. Anti-U.S. Stance: The statement strongly criticized U.S. policies, accusing it of pursuing “dual containment” of Russia and China, which they view as hostile and destabilizing.
3. Future Cooperation: In the short term, the summit is likely to lead to intensified bilateral cooperation, especially in areas critical to Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. In the long term, this could result in deeper economic and technological collaboration, potentially challenging the U.S.-led global order.

Impact on India

1. Strategic Concerns: India's relationship with Russia, especially in defense, could be affected by Russia's increasing dependence on China. This raises concerns about the reliability of Russian defense supplies amidst India's border tensions with China.
2. Global Positioning: India must evaluate the evolving Russia-China dynamic critically, considering its implications for India's strategic autonomy and global aspirations.
3. New Opportunities: As global polarizations emerge, India should leverage its strategic autonomy, focusing on its core national interests and pursuing a balanced approach to maintain its global standing.

UPSC Mains Questions

Q. Analyze the implications of the evolving Russia-China relationship on India’s strategic interests and defense procurement. How can India balance its strategic autonomy with emerging global polarizations?