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The Curious Case of Declining Voters in the 2024 Elections
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Context
The phenomenon of declining voter numbers in the 2024 elections, despite the general trend of increasing voter participation in India, raises significant questions about the underlying causes and implications for the electoral process.
Analysis of Voter Decline
- Unexpected Decline in Voter Numbers: Contrary to the expectation that voter numbers increase every election cycle due to population growth, nearly one-third of constituencies in the 2024 elections witnessed a decline in the absolute number of voters compared to 2019.
- Statistical Insights: Analysis up to Phase 5 of the 2024 elections revealed that out of 427 constituencies, 115 (27%) saw fewer voters than in 2019. This is an unprecedented trend in India's electoral history, especially since such declines were minimal or non-existent in previous elections.
- Overall Voter Numbers: While over 505 million people voted in 2024 compared to 485 million in 2019, marking a 4% increase, this is significantly lower than the 12% increase observed between 2014 and 2019, highlighting a concerning slowdown in voter growth.
Potential Causes of Decline
- Geographic Concentration: The majority of constituencies with declining voter numbers are located in six states: Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh.
- Factors Influencing Voter Turnout: The decline could result from fewer new eligible voters, increased emigration, or lower voter turnout. Given the continuous population growth, a significant drop in new eligible voters is unlikely, and widespread emigration is not plausible in the affected constituencies.
- Turnout Patterns: The most likely explanation is a sharp decline in voter turnout. This drop raises questions about voluntary abstention versus potential voter suppression or coercion.
Implications and Further Questions
- Impact on Opposition: The decline in voter numbers appears more pronounced in constituencies where the Opposition had won in 2019 or was expected to perform well in 2024, suggesting potential political undercurrents affecting voter behavior.
- Phased Election Analysis: The trend of declining voter numbers fluctuated across different phases of the elections, indicating no consistent pattern of voter apathy or engagement throughout the election process.
- Need for Investigation: This unusual trend necessitates a thorough investigation by the Election Commission to understand the underlying reasons and to ensure the integrity and inclusivity of the electoral process.
UPSC Mains Questions
Q. Analyze the implications of declining voter numbers in key constituencies on the democratic process in India. How does this trend affect political representation and voter confidence in the electoral system?
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