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New term, old problems
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Context
Following his reelection as Russia's President, Vladimir Putin replaced his long-time Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, with civilian economist Andrei Belousov, indicating a shift towards addressing economic challenges amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.
Changes in Defence Leadership:
- Strategic Decision: Putin's decision to remove Shoigu reflects concerns over the conduct and management of the war in Ukraine, which Russia initially anticipated to be swift but has now become protracted.
- Appointment of Technocrat: Belousov's appointment suggests a prioritization of economic stabilization and sustaining military objectives amidst sanctions, marking a departure from Shoigu's military-centric leadership.
- Shake-up in Response to Setbacks: Criticisms of Shoigu's handling of the war, coupled with setbacks and internal challenges, prompted Putin to reevaluate the Defence Ministry's leadership to ensure swift military progress.
Challenges and Strategic Shifts:
- Battlefield Dynamics: Russia's recent offensive in northeastern Ukraine signals ongoing military operations aimed at capturing strategic territories, despite anticipated U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
- Economic Fallout: The war has strained Russia's relations with the West, leading to economic isolation and deeper ties with China, exacerbating domestic repression and posing challenges in shielding citizens from sanctions.
- Long-term Implications: Even with potential military gains in Ukraine, Putin faces a Russia grappling with internal repression, economic weakness, and heightened hostility from Western nations, raising questions about the sustainability of his regime's strategies.
UPSC Mains Question:
Evaluate the strategic shifts in Russia's approach to the conflict and analyze the potential long-term consequences for Russia's geopolitical positioning.
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